Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) will report third quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15, 2026, before the U.S. market opens.
• Monthly sales have already pointed to a record quarter, with Q3 revenue reaching roughly NT$1.49 trillion, up about 50% year over year.
• Wall Street consensus calls for earnings per share (EPS, or net profit divided by shares outstanding) of $4.41 per ADR (American Depositary Receipt), up from $2.85 a year earlier.
• Analysts expect revenue near $45.36 billion, above the company's prior guidance range of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion.
• Options traders are pricing in a move of roughly 5% after the report, well above the stock's recent post-earnings average.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

As the world's largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) sits at the center of the global artificial intelligence (AI) buildout. Its leading-edge manufacturing supplies Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Apple, making its quarterly report a key gauge of demand across the entire semiconductor industry. The company enters this report with strong momentum: second quarter revenue reached $40.20 billion, and September-quarter sales have already set a record. With AI infrastructure spending still elevated and the advanced 2-nanometer process ramping up, investors are watching whether TSMC can translate surging revenue into margin expansion and an upbeat outlook.

Earnings Expectations

Analysts expect TSM to report third quarter 2026 EPS of $4.41 per ADR, a sharp increase from $2.85 in the year-ago period, alongside revenue of about $45.36 billion, up from $33.08 billion a year earlier. These figures sit above the company's own guidance of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion in revenue. On margins, management guided to a gross margin of 65.0% to 67.0% and an operating margin of 56.0% to 58.0%, compared with 67.7% and 60.3% respectively in the second quarter. Monthly revenue data already confirmed a record quarter, with September-quarter sales of roughly NT$1.49 trillion, up about 50% year over year and above consensus estimates. Historically, TSMC shares have moved an average of about 2.9% after earnings, so a report that clears expectations on both revenue and margins could spark a meaningful reaction.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into the report is broadly positive but cautious. Shares have pulled back modestly ahead of earnings, and options traders are pricing in a move of about 5.05% in either direction, notably higher than the stock's four-quarter average post-earnings move of roughly 2.87%, suggesting expectations for an outsized reaction. Analyst commentary has leaned bullish: Barclays reiterated an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $665, while Stifel maintained a Buy rating, citing strong revenue growth and improving pricing for advanced chips. Key risks include elevated valuation, any signs of AI-related order digestion, and margin pressure tied to overseas capacity expansion.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Beyond the headline figures, investors will focus on management's fourth quarter guidance and commentary on AI demand durability. The pace of the 2-nanometer ramp and its contribution to revenue and margins will be closely scrutinized, as newer nodes typically carry higher costs in their early stages.

Margin trajectory remains another focal point. While pricing for leading-edge technology has been supportive, overseas fabrication in the United States and Japan, along with higher electricity and depreciation costs, could pressure profitability. Foreign exchange assumptions also matter, given that TSMC reports in New Taiwan dollars while guiding in U.S. dollars.

Finally, watch for any signals on broader demand beyond AI, including smartphones, high-performance computing, and the automotive and industrial segments. A stronger-than-expected fourth quarter outlook, or cautious commentary on customer inventory levels, could shape how investors interpret the company's growth runway through 2027.

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