Waste Management (WM) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Waste Management is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with a conference call the following morning.
• Wall Street consensus points to adjusted earnings of roughly $2.19 per share, up from $1.98 in the year-ago quarter.
• Analysts expect revenue near $6.8 billion, an increase of about 5% to 6% from the $6.44 billion reported in Q3 2025.
• Investors will focus on core price growth, collection and disposal volume trends, and the performance of the company's recycling and renewable energy businesses.
• Management's full-year guidance, including adjusted operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and free cash flow, will be a key area of scrutiny.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Waste Management is the largest integrated waste collection, disposal, and recycling company in North America, making its quarterly results a closely watched barometer for the broader environmental-services industry. In the second quarter of 2026, the company beat earnings estimates on disciplined pricing and cost management, even as revenue came in slightly below consensus. Heading into the third quarter, investors are evaluating whether that pricing-led profit momentum can continue against a backdrop of softer volume and elevated energy-related surcharges. Because Waste Management's business is driven by recurring, contractual revenue, its results offer insight into both consumer and industrial demand trends as well as the company's push into renewable natural gas and recycling.

Earnings Expectations

For the third quarter of 2026, the consensus estimate calls for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $2.19, according to data aggregated from leading research platforms, with individual analyst forecasts ranging from roughly $2.09 to $2.35. That compares with adjusted EPS of $1.98 in the third quarter of 2025, implying mid-teens growth. Consensus revenue expectations cluster around $6.8 billion, up from $6.44 billion a year earlier.

These projections follow a second quarter in which Waste Management reported adjusted EPS of $2.02, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99, while revenue of $6.68 billion narrowly missed estimates of $6.71 billion. Core price rose 5.7% in that period, a trend analysts will watch closely again in Q3. Key metrics to monitor include collection and disposal yield, landfill volumes, the adjusted operating EBITDA margin, and free cash flow.

For the full year, management has guided revenue to a range of $26.28 billion to $26.48 billion, with adjusted operating EBITDA of $8.15 billion to $8.25 billion and free cash flow of $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion. Any update to these targets will likely shape the immediate post-earnings reaction.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into the third-quarter report has been generally constructive, though the stock has shown sensitivity to volume trends and revenue guidance. Waste Management shares have traded near recent highs in the low-$200 range as of early October 2026, reflecting investor confidence in the company's pricing discipline and cash-generation profile. However, the modest revenue miss in the second quarter and a downward revision to full-year revenue guidance serve as reminders that volume softness and strategic exits from lower-margin residential contracts remain areas of caution. Historically, the stock has reacted more strongly to margin performance and cash-flow commentary than to small revenue beats or misses, so the adjusted operating EBITDA margin and free cash flow trajectory will be central to how investors interpret the results.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Beyond the headline numbers, investors should watch for commentary on core price, which has been the primary driver of revenue growth. Sustained mid-single-digit pricing gains would signal continued pricing power, while any deceleration could raise questions about the durability of margin expansion.

The company's sustainability businesses represent another focal point. Recycling Processing and Sales and WM Renewable Energy have been growing rapidly, aided by new facilities and increased renewable natural gas production. Commodity prices for recycled materials and renewable fuel credits can be volatile, so management's outlook on these items will matter for near-term profitability.

Finally, capital allocation and full-year guidance updates will be closely monitored. Waste Management has been returning significant cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks while investing in growth projects. Any adjustments to the revenue, adjusted operating EBITDA, or free cash flow outlooks could influence how investors model the remainder of the fiscal year and set expectations for 2027.

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