These three ETFs represent distinct approaches within the defined outcome category, each resetting annually in different months while referencing the same underlying SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). They do not track identical indexes but compete as strategic alternatives for investors seeking buffered equity exposure with predetermined risk parameters. The comparison highlights variations in buffer protection, upside participation, and overall design that influence suitability across different market environments and investor risk tolerances.
The FT Cboe Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May (FMAY) seeks to provide investors with a buffer against the first 10% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) over a one-year outcome period beginning each May, while capping upside participation. The fund employs FLEX options and maintains a synthetic structure with typically one primary holding. It carries an expense ratio of 0.85% and is actively managed by First Trust. Sector allocation mirrors the S&P 500 through options exposure, emphasizing large-cap U.S. equities without direct stock ownership.
The Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - July (PJUL) targets a 15% buffer against SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) losses over its annual July outcome period, with upside capped at a predetermined level (recently around 14%). It utilizes FLEX options on SPY and holds a minimal number of positions focused on options and collateral. The expense ratio stands at 0.79%. Issued by Innovator, the fund resets annually and offers defined outcome characteristics suited to investors prioritizing downside mitigation within S&P 500-linked returns.
The FT Cboe Vest U.S. Equity Enhance & Moderate Buffer ETF - December (XDEC) aims to deliver approximately 2x the positive price returns of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) up to a cap, alongside a moderate downside buffer over its December outcome period. The structure relies on options contracts, resulting in three primary holdings in recent data. It features an expense ratio of 0.85% and active management by First Trust. This enhanced design differentiates it by offering leveraged upside potential within defined limits.
The defined outcome ETF category has seen increased adoption amid ongoing market volatility and investor demand for structured equity solutions. Capital flows into buffer and enhanced strategies reflect preferences for risk-managed exposure to large-cap U.S. equities during periods of uncertainty. Macroeconomic drivers such as interest rate environments, corporate earnings trends in technology and financial sectors, and broader S&P 500 performance influence these products. Regulatory clarity around options-based ETFs supports their growth, while sector risks remain tied to concentration in mega-cap holdings and sensitivity to economic cycles.
In recent months and market cycles, the ETFs have exhibited lower volatility than direct S&P 500 exposure due to their buffered structures, though upside participation varies by design. FMAY and PJUL have shown consistent trend adherence within their caps and buffers, with PJUL’s deeper 15% buffer potentially offering greater drawdown protection. XDEC’s enhanced multiplier introduces higher sensitivity to positive S&P 500 moves up to the cap but may amplify relative underperformance in flat or modestly rising markets. Differences stem from buffer depth, cap levels, and the enhanced feature in XDEC, leading to distinct risk-adjusted profiles over annual periods.
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening.
Based on observable structural strength, PJUL demonstrates advantages in buffer depth and slightly lower expense ratio, supporting favorable risk-adjusted positioning for conservative S&P 500 exposure. FMAY offers solid standard buffering at comparable cost, while XDEC’s enhanced upside introduces greater complexity that may suit specific momentum scenarios. Tickeron’s AI would currently favor PJUL probabilistically for its balanced diversification profile and cost efficiency within the category.
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
On October 21, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for FMAY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 35 of the 42 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 83%.
FMAY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FMAY advanced for three days, in 245 of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 286 of 426 cases where FMAY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FMAY as a result. In 46 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FMAY turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FMAY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
FMAY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
PJUL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 34 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PJUL as a result. In 47 of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +0.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PJUL advanced for three days, in 256 of 391 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 307 of 449 cases where PJUL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 33 of 63 cases where PJUL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PJUL turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 48%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PJUL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
PJUL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
XDEC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 16, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 64 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 44 of the 64 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Following a +0.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XDEC advanced for three days, in 214 of 383 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 324 of 540 cases where XDEC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 60%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XDEC moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 72 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 72 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 28%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 28 of 69 cases where XDEC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XDEC turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 40%.
XDEC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
| FMAY | PJUL | XDEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 2 days ago 28% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 17 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 54% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 27% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| SMTH | 24.75 | 0.04 | +0.16% |
| ALPS/SMITH Core Plus Bond ETF (SMTH) | |||
| CPNJ | 27.73 | N/A | N/A |
| Calamos 100 Structured Alt Protection ETF (CPNJ) | |||
| BUFE | 21.21 | N/A | N/A |
| FT Vest Laddered Emerging Markets Buffer ETF (BUFE) | |||
| XTRE | 48.00 | -0.02 | -0.04% |
| BondBloxx Bloomberg Three Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (XTRE) | |||
| VGM | 9.08 | -0.04 | -0.44% |
| Invesco Trust Investment Grade Municipals | |||