GOVZ
Price
$33.52
Change
-$0.30 (-0.89%)
Updated
Oct 23 closing price
Net Assets
371.88M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
TLT
Price
$81.34
Change
-$0.40 (-0.49%)
Updated
Oct 23 closing price
Net Assets
47.28B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
UTHY
Price
$38.42
Change
-$0.17 (-0.44%)
Updated
Oct 23 closing price
Net Assets
216.02M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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GOVZ or TLT or UTHY

GOVZ vs TLT vs UTHY Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 21, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF (GOVZ) vs. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs. F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY)

Key Takeaways

  • GOVZ offers the lowest expense ratio at 0.10% and focuses exclusively on long-maturity Treasury STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities), providing concentrated duration exposure with approximately 21 holdings.
  • TLT provides broad diversification across dozens of individual long-term U.S. Treasury bonds through a market-value-weighted index, supported by exceptional liquidity and an expense ratio of 0.15%.
  • UTHY delivers targeted exposure to a single on-the-run 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, resulting in minimal holdings (typically two, including cash) and an expense ratio of 0.15%, emphasizing simplicity over diversification.
  • Structural differences center on holdings concentration, with GOVZ and UTHY representing more specialized approaches compared to TLT’s broader basket within the long-duration Treasury segment.
  • Cost efficiency favors GOVZ, while liquidity and trading depth favor TLT; all three share sensitivity to interest-rate movements as passive long-duration government-bond vehicles.
  • Relative positioning depends on investor preference for index breadth versus single-security precision, with no single fund dominating across all structural metrics.

Introduction

These three exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compete within the long-duration U.S. Treasury bond category, each pursuing distinct strategies to deliver exposure to extended-maturity government debt. GOVZ, TLT, and UTHY do not track identical indexes; instead, they represent variations on the same core theme of interest-rate-sensitive fixed-income instruments. GOVZ emphasizes principal-only STRIPS, TLT captures a diversified portfolio of coupon-bearing bonds, and UTHY isolates the most recently issued 30-year security. Investors compare them to calibrate duration, cost, liquidity, and concentration risk within a low-credit-risk segment of the fixed-income market.

iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF (GOVZ) Overview

The GOVZ ETF is managed by BlackRock under the iShares brand and seeks to track the ICE BofA Long US Treasury Principal STRIPS Index. It holds approximately 21 principal STRIPS with remaining maturities of at least 25 years, selected from U.S. Treasury bonds with at least $1 billion in outstanding face value. The fund employs passive, physical replication and maintains a market-value weighting methodology with periodic rebalancing aligned to the index. Its expense ratio stands at 0.10%. Distinguishing features include the exclusive focus on stripped principal payments, resulting in zero coupon income and heightened sensitivity to long-term rate changes. Sector allocation is 100% U.S. government securities.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Overview

The TLT ETF, also issued by BlackRock iShares, tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. It maintains a diversified portfolio of roughly 48 U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. The fund uses passive management and market-value weighting, with regular index rebalancing. The expense ratio is 0.15%. Key structural characteristics include broad holdings depth, high trading volume, and inclusion of both principal and interest components. Allocation remains entirely within U.S. Treasuries, providing pure government-bond exposure without credit or equity components.

F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY) Overview

The UTHY ETF from F/m Investments seeks to track the Bloomberg US Treasury Bellwether 30Y Total Return USD Unhedged Index. It invests primarily in the single most recently issued on-the-run 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, supplemented by a minimal cash position, resulting in approximately two holdings. The fund applies passive replication with an expense ratio of 0.15%. Its design emphasizes operational simplicity, monthly distributions, and automatic rolling into new issuances. Sector exposure is confined to U.S. government debt, with effective duration centered on the 30-year point of the yield curve.

Industry and Thematic Landscape

The long-duration U.S. Treasury segment operates within a macroeconomic environment shaped by Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and fiscal dynamics. Capital flows into government bonds often accelerate during periods of economic uncertainty or anticipated rate cuts, while outflows may occur amid rising growth expectations. Regulatory developments around Treasury market structure and liquidity provision influence all participants. Geopolitical events and shifts in global demand for safe assets further affect yields across the 20- to 30-year segment. Earnings or cash-flow trends are not applicable, as these vehicles hold only sovereign obligations; primary risks include duration-driven price volatility and reinvestment considerations at maturity.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

In recent market cycles, structural differences have driven relative behavior among the three ETFs. TLT’s diversified holdings have contributed to more stable trend consistency compared with the higher concentration in GOVZ and UTHY. GOVZ exhibits pronounced sensitivity to the longest end of the curve due to its STRIPS composition, potentially amplifying drawdowns during sharp rate rises. UTHY’s single-bond focus creates tighter alignment with the current 30-year issue, leading to distinct volatility patterns versus broader indexes. Liquidity advantages in TLT support tighter spreads and easier position adjustments. Performance divergences stem primarily from maturity targets, coupon versus zero-coupon structures, and rebalancing frequency rather than active management decisions.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your ETF research.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable structural strength, TLT presents the most balanced profile for Tickeron’s AI consideration, combining broad diversification, established liquidity, and competitive cost efficiency within the long-duration Treasury space. Its market-value-weighted approach reduces concentration risk relative to single-security or STRIPS-focused alternatives while maintaining high tradability. GOVZ offers cost advantages that could appeal in fee-sensitive allocations, and UTHY provides precise 30-year targeting for tactical duration management. Probabilistic assessment favors TLT for risk-adjusted positioning across varied market environments.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for GOVZ with price predictions
Oct 23, 2026

GOVZ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026

GOVZ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 33 of 42 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GOVZ as a result. In 68 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOVZ just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where GOVZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.

Following a +3.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOVZ advanced for three days, in 194 of 261 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for GOVZ moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 20 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOVZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.

GOVZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for GOVZ entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TLT with price predictions
Oct 23, 2026

TLT in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026

TLT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLT as a result. In 71 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.

Following a +2.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in 194 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TLT moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.

TLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for TLT entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for UTHY with price predictions
Oct 23, 2026

UTHY in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026

UTHY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UTHY as a result. In 42 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UTHY just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where UTHY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 32 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Following a +2.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UTHY advanced for three days, in 141 of 209 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for UTHY moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 18 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 89%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UTHY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.

UTHY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for UTHY entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
GOVZTLTUTHY
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
89%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
82%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
83%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
78%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
75%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
63%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
77%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
73%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
69%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
76%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
72%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
68%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
77%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
72%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
71%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 3 days ago
74%
Bullish Trend 3 days ago
69%
Bullish Trend 3 days ago
67%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 6 days ago
88%
Bearish Trend 20 days ago
78%
Bearish Trend 20 days ago
74%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
89%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
89%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
85%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
72%
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GOVZ
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TLT
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UTHY
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
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