ALMS stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Alumis Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with an initial focus on developing its two Tyrosine Kinase 2 ("TYK2") inhibitors: envudeucitinib ("envu"), an allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for the treatment of PsO and SLE; and A-005, a central nervous system ("CNS") penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor, to offer the therapeutic benefit of TYK2 inhibition within the CNS for a broad range of neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases... Show more
Why Alumis Inc (ALMS) Stock Is Down -69% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Alumis (ALMS) shares fell roughly 69% over the trailing 30 days, driven primarily by a single-day collapse of about 57% following a failed mid-stage lupus trial.
- The Phase 2b LUMUS trial of envudeucitinib in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) missed its primary and secondary endpoints across the overall study population.
- A prespecified subgroup of patients with a high interferon gene signature showed strong responses, and Alumis plans to pursue a biomarker-driven Phase 3 path with regulators.
- The company reaffirmed that its plaque psoriasis program remains on track for a Q4 2026 NDA submission to the FDA.
- Multiple analysts cut price targets or downgraded the stock, while insiders showed notable buying activity over the prior 12 months.
Alumis Inc (ALMS) Company Overview and Market Position
Alumis Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company headquartered in South San Francisco, California, focused on developing oral tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitors for immune-mediated diseases. Its lead candidate, envudeucitinib (formerly ESK-001), is an allosteric TYK2 inhibitor being developed for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus. The company is also advancing A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor initially aimed at neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative conditions such as Parkinson's disease.
Founded in 2021 and publicly listed in mid-2024, Alumis competes in a crowded TYK2 and oral immunology field that includes Bristol Myers Squibb's Sotyktu, Johnson & Johnson's Icotyde, and Takeda's zasocitinib. Investors follow the stock closely for its psoriasis regulatory catalyst, its broader TYK2 franchise ambitions, and its precision-medicine approach to autoimmune disease.
Alumis Inc (ALMS) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, ALMS declined roughly 69%, falling from about $25.50 in mid-August to roughly $7.89 by mid-September. The overwhelming majority of that decline occurred in a single session on September 1, 2026, when shares dropped about 57% after the company reported disappointing lupus trial data.
The quarterly picture is more nuanced. Alumis began the trailing three-month window in the low-$20s, rallied to a 52-week intraday high of $31.35 in early July as enthusiasm around its psoriasis data built, and then faded through August as investors positioned ahead of the lupus readout. The September collapse erased those gains, leaving the stock down roughly 65% from its mid-June level.
What Drove ALMS Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the Phase 2b LUMUS trial readout. The 48-week study enrolled 408 adults with moderate-to-severe, autoantibody-positive SLE and evaluated three doses of envudeucitinib against placebo. In the overall population, the trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, the BICLA measure of disease activity, as well as key secondary endpoints. The drug was generally well tolerated, with no new safety signals.
Beneath the headline miss, a prespecified subgroup of patients with a high interferon gene signature (IFNGS-high) showed notably stronger responses. At the highest dose, the IFNGS-high group posted a BICLA response rate of 52.6%, versus 24.4% in IFNGS-low patients. The IFNGS-high population represented about 60% of trial participants, lower than the roughly 80% the company had anticipated, which management said contributed to the overall miss. Alumis plans to meet with regulators to design a Phase 3 study focused on this biomarker-defined population.
The selloff was amplified by a wave of analyst revisions. Morgan Stanley cut its target to $29 from $39, Wells Fargo to $25 from $51, and Baird to $27 from $35, while Guggenheim downgraded the stock to Neutral. The company concurrently reaffirmed its plan to file a New Drug Application for envudeucitinib in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the fourth quarter of 2026.
What Drove ALMS Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader three-month trend was shaped by two competing narratives. Through July, Alumis rode positive momentum from its ONWARD Phase 3 psoriasis program, which reported positive topline results earlier in 2026, including data showing that 54% of patients achieved complete skin clearance (PASI 100) at week 48 in ONWARD3. Management also highlighted strong quality-of-life and itch-relief benefits at medical conferences, positioning envudeucitinib as a differentiated oral option.
That optimism set a high bar for the lupus readout. As the quarter progressed, the stock drifted lower into the data, and the LUMUS miss forced the market to reprice the value of the SLE opportunity. The result left psoriasis — not lupus — as the primary near-term value driver, with lupus now viewed as a higher-risk, biomarker-dependent program.
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ALMS Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several milestones will shape Alumis' trajectory. The psoriasis NDA submission targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 is the most important near-term catalyst, with any regulatory feedback or acceptance news likely to move the stock. Investors will also watch the company's planned discussions with the FDA over a Phase 3 lupus design, including how Alumis defines and enriches for IFNGS-high patients. Additional factors include the Phase 2 two-year safety data for psoriasis, progress on the once-daily formulation, the planned A-005 clinical entry in Parkinson's disease, and the company's capital position — roughly $502 million in cash as of June 30, 2026, which management expects to fund operations into the fourth quarter of 2027. Competitive developments from rival TYK2 inhibitors and any partnership announcements also remain key variables to monitor.
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ALMS in -4.57% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on September 25, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ALMS declined for three days, in 125 of 141 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator for ALMS entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 17 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 19 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALMS just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALMS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 14 of 18 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +4.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALMS advanced for three days, in 100 of 129 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
ALMS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.033) is normal, around the industry mean (26.453). P/E Ratio (0.166) is within average values for comparable stocks, (42.231). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (9.058). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.000) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (123.457) is also within normal values, averaging (438.009).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ALMS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALMS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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Industry Biotechnology