ALRN Aileron Therapeutics Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

ALRN in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 14, 2024

ALRN moved below its 50-day moving average on November 14, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 25 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 11, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ALRN as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for ALRN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 19, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALRN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for ALRN entered a downward trend on December 17, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for ALRN's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALRN advanced for three days, in of 229 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ALRN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.828) is normal, around the industry mean (14.664). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (87.689). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.783). ALRN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.012). P/S Ratio (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (260.687).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ALRN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALRN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.