AMPX stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Amprius Technologies Inc is engaged in the production of silicon anodes for high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries... Show more
Why Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Stock Is Down -19% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- AMPX shares fell roughly 19% over the trailing 30 days, sliding from about $9.50 to near $7.70.
- The pullback extended a longer decline, with the stock down approximately 24% over the past quarter despite a strong first half of 2026.
- Positive operational news, including a U.S. Department of War grant and a new contract manufacturing agreement, did not halt the sell-off.
- Investors are weighing execution on the capital-light "foundry" model, potential dilution from a shelf registration, and a premium valuation.
- Q2 results showed continued growth, with fiscal 2026 revenue guidance raised to at least $140 million.
Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Company Overview and Market Position
Amprius Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: AMPX) is a Fremont, California-based developer and manufacturer of high-energy and high-power lithium-ion batteries built around proprietary silicon anode technology. Its two core platforms are SiMaxx, a 100% silicon nanowire anode used in mission-critical applications, and SiCore, a silicon-based material system compatible with conventional manufacturing equipment. The company supplies cells primarily for unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and drones, high-altitude pseudo-satellites (HAPS), eVTOL aircraft, light electric vehicles, and defense applications.
Amprius operates a "foundry" model that relies on contract manufacturing partners in South Korea and the United States, allowing it to scale capacity with limited capital expenditure. This positioning in the domestic defense supply chain, where NDAA compliance is increasingly important, is a key reason investors follow the stock.
Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, AMPX shares declined approximately 19%, falling from a closing price near $9.50 to around $7.70. The move lower was punctuated by a sharp step down in mid-October, when the stock broke below the $8 level.
The longer quarterly trend tells a similar story. Roughly three months earlier, in mid-July, the stock traded near $10.14, implying a decline of about 24% over the period. This weakness followed a strong start to 2026, when the stock rallied sharply as revenue accelerated and the company shifted toward its asset-light manufacturing strategy. The recent pullback therefore reflects a consolidation and valuation reset after an extended run rather than a single adverse event.
What Drove AMPX Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most notable development in the period was a late-September award of a U.S. Department of War grant of up to $74.8 million, structured through the Project acCELLerate program, to retrofit an existing domestic EV battery line operated by a major South Korean manufacturer. The converted line is intended to produce NDAA-compliant, high-energy-density pouch cells for drone applications.
That was followed in early October by a contract manufacturing agreement with CAMINUS (formerly EnPower) to produce Amprius-designed silicon-anode pouch cells at an Indianapolis facility. These announcements strengthened the company's domestic manufacturing narrative, yet the share price still declined. Contributing factors included a shelf registration statement filed with the SEC in early October, which raised the prospect of future equity issuance, and a price-target adjustment from Canaccord Genuity to $14.00, well below the consensus average target near $23. Combined with a premium price-to-sales multiple and elevated short interest, the news flow was not enough to offset profit-taking and concerns about execution risk and dilution.
What Drove AMPX Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader multi-month decline reflects a shift from momentum-driven gains to a more cautious reassessment of valuation and execution. Earlier in 2026, the stock rallied as Amprius delivered rapid revenue growth, raised guidance, and reported its first positive adjusted EBITDA. More recently, investors have focused on the time required to convert defense awards and contract manufacturing agreements into meaningful volume production, a process that carries qualification and scale-up risk.
The company's fundamentals remained intact through the period. Q2 results included a second consecutive increase to fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, now at least $140 million, with adjusted EBITDA of at least $4 million, and a balance sheet holding $74.5 million in cash with no debt. Demand indicators, including growing backlog and increasing urgency around NDAA-compliant supply, stayed positive. Against that backdrop, the quarterly slide appears driven more by sentiment, valuation compression, and consolidation than by deteriorating operations.
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AMPX Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, the primary catalysts for AMPX are execution-related. Investors should monitor progress on qualifying the retrofitted domestic EV line and the CAMINUS Indianapolis facility, along with any updates on NDAA-compliant cell production for drone customers. The company's quarterly earnings and guidance updates will remain central, particularly whether it can sustain revenue growth and move toward its adjusted EBITDA targets.
Other factors to watch include the resolution of the shelf registration and any related financing activity, analyst rating changes, and the pace of defense and aviation orders. Macroeconomic conditions, defense budget dynamics, and competitive pressures in the lithium-ion battery sector could also influence sentiment. As always, execution on scaling silicon-anode production and converting announced agreements into revenue will be the defining factor for the stock's trajectory.
Disclaimer
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AMPX sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
AMPX saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 12, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 36 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMPX as a result. In 63 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMPX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMPX entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMPX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 30 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 15 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMPX advanced for three days, in 166 of 198 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
AMPX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.662) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.099). P/E Ratio (-28.655) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.242). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.900). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.351) is also within normal values, averaging (8.019).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AMPX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMPX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
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