ARCT stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc is an RNA medicines company focused on the development of infectious disease vaccines and opportunities within liver and respiratory rare diseases... Show more
Why Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Stock Is Down -28.8% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) shares have pulled back roughly 28.8% over the last 30 days, from a closing price near $16.03 to about $11.41, following a sharp multi-week rally.
- Despite the recent decline, the stock remains up approximately 91% over the last quarter, reflecting a strong late-July and August advance.
- The pullback appears driven primarily by profit-taking and consolidation after a rapid run-up rather than by a single negative company-specific event.
- Arcturus continues to advance its rare-disease pipeline, including ARCT-032 for cystic fibrosis and ARCT-810 for ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency.
- Key near-term catalysts include a Phase 3 decision for ARCT-032 expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and further regulatory updates for the OTC program.
Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Company Overview and Market Position
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. is a San Diego–based messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines company focused on developing therapeutics for liver and respiratory rare diseases. The company's platform combines its LUNAR lipid-mediated delivery technology, its STARR self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) technology, and in-house mRNA drug substance and drug product manufacturing capabilities.
Arcturus developed KOSTAIVE, the first self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine to receive approval, with licensure in markets including Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Its clinical pipeline is anchored by ARCT-032, an inhaled mRNA candidate for cystic fibrosis (CF), and ARCT-810, an mRNA therapeutic for OTC deficiency, a rare urea cycle disorder. The company maintains strategic collaborations with partners including Thermo Fisher Scientific for manufacturing and development and the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for pandemic influenza initiatives. Investors follow the stock closely for clinical data readouts and regulatory milestones across its rare-disease programs.
Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, ARCT has declined approximately 28.8%, moving from a closing price near $16.03 to about $11.41 at the most recent session. The decline has been broad-based and gradual rather than tied to a single-day event, with the stock trending lower through late September and October before stabilizing.
The near-term move stands in contrast to the stock's performance over the last quarter. From a closing price near $5.97 in late July, ARCT rallied to a recent high around $17 before giving back a portion of those gains. Measured over the full quarter, the stock is still up roughly 91%, underscoring the magnitude of the August advance and the extent to which the current pullback represents a retracement of that move.
What Drove ARCT Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most significant factor behind the recent decline appears to be profit-taking and consolidation following an exceptionally strong August rally. After trading near $6 in late July, ARCT more than doubled into mid-September, a move that left the stock extended and vulnerable to a technical pullback. Over the last 30 days, no single negative company-specific development has been the primary driver of the decline.
Several company updates did influence sentiment during the period. In late September, Arcturus reported interim Phase 2 data for ARCT-810 in OTC deficiency, introduced its next-generation LUNAR 2.0 delivery platform, and announced an agreement to acquire myNEO, a computational biology partner, to strengthen its artificial intelligence and mRNA design capabilities. The stock initially gained following these announcements before resuming its downward drift.
Analyst activity has remained broadly constructive. Wells Fargo maintained a Buy rating with a $20 price target, BTIG reiterated a Buy, and H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Hold rating. The consensus one-year price target has been revised to roughly $22.75, well above recent trading levels, indicating that the recent weakness has not yet translated into a broadly negative shift in sell-side sentiment.
What Drove ARCT Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader quarterly trend reflects a powerful re-rating of Arcturus shares beginning in August. The company's second-quarter update highlighted completed enrollment and dosing in its Phase 2 OTC deficiency study, progress on the 12-week Phase 2 cystic fibrosis study of ARCT-032, and the regaining of global rights to KOSTAIVE and its self-amplifying mRNA platform following the conclusion of the collaboration with CSL Seqirus. That agreement also resolved related arbitration, with CSL Seqirus making a one-time $12 million cash payment to Arcturus.
This pipeline momentum, combined with a strengthened executive team and a cash position of $191.5 million as of mid-2026 with runway extending beyond the second quarter of 2028, helped fuel investor enthusiasm. The stock's rapid ascent drew increased attention to the company's rare-disease programs, and the subsequent October pullback can be viewed within the context of a longer-term trend that remains strongly positive over the quarter.
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ARCT Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, the primary catalysts for ARCT center on clinical and regulatory milestones. The company has indicated it expects to decide whether to advance ARCT-032 into Phase 3 during the fourth quarter of 2026, a decision that could carry significant implications for the cystic fibrosis program and its partnership economics with Thermo Fisher Scientific. A positive decision would trigger additional manufacturing and development support.
For the OTC deficiency program, investors should monitor further disclosure of Phase 2 data and the regulatory plan, including preparations for an end-of-Phase 2 meeting across adult and pediatric development paths. Broader factors to watch include biotech sector sentiment, capital-markets conditions, and any updates on the commercialization or partnering of the KOSTAIVE vaccine portfolio. As with all clinical-stage biotechnology companies, the timing and outcome of trial results and regulatory interactions remain key risks that could drive volatility in either direction.
Disclaimer
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ARCT in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026
ARCT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 32 cases where ARCT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARCT advanced for three days, in 229 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 25, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARCT as a result. In 77 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
ARCT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ARCT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARCT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Aroon Indicator for ARCT entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.831) is normal, around the industry mean (2.988). P/E Ratio (-3.324) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-1.158). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (9.059). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (123.903) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (23.364) is also within normal values, averaging (438.009).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARCT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ARCT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of technology and therapeutics for rare diseases
Industry Biotechnology