ARCT stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc is an RNA medicines company focused on the development of infectious disease vaccines and opportunities within liver and respiratory rare diseases... Show more
Why Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Stock Is Down -16% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) shares fell approximately 16% over the past 30 days, declining from $6.88 on June 26 to $5.76 as of July 28, 2026.
- The stock briefly spiked above $8.28 on July 2 following a strategic collaboration announcement with Thermo Fisher Scientific, but failed to hold those gains amid persistent selling pressure.
- Over the last quarter, ARCT has declined roughly 35%, extending a prolonged downtrend driven by declining collaboration revenue, ongoing net losses, and a strategic pivot from COVID-19 vaccines to rare disease therapeutics.
- Upcoming catalysts include the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6 and Phase 2 clinical data readouts for ARCT-032 in cystic fibrosis later this year.
- Analyst consensus remains a Moderate Buy with a $24.25 average price target, though the stock trades near its 52-week low of $5.50.
Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Company Overview and Market Position
Founded in 2013 and headquartered in San Diego, California, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. is a clinical-stage messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines company focused on developing therapies for liver and respiratory rare diseases. The company's proprietary platforms include LUNAR® lipid-mediated delivery technology and STARR® self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) technology. Arcturus gained global recognition for developing KOSTAIVE®, the world's first approved self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, now approved in 32 countries. The company's therapeutic pipeline is anchored by ARCT-032, an inhaled mRNA candidate for cystic fibrosis (CF), and ARCT-810 for ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency. Arcturus maintains strategic partnerships with CSL Seqirus, the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and a manufacturing joint venture in Japan (ARCALIS). Despite a market capitalization of approximately $164 million, the company holds over 500 patents and patent applications globally.
Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, ARCT shares declined approximately 16%, sliding from a closing price of $6.88 on June 26, 2026, to $5.76 as of July 28. The stock experienced a sharp but short-lived rally on July 2, surging as high as $8.28 intraday after the company announced a strategic collaboration with Thermo Fisher Scientific to support Phase 3 development and potential commercialization of ARCT-032. However, those gains evaporated within a week, and the stock resumed its downward trajectory, slipping below $6.00 by mid-July and touching a 52-week low of $5.50 on July 24. The 50-day moving average stands at approximately $7.22, and the 200-day moving average near $7.47, both well above the current trading price.
The quarterly performance paints an even starker picture. Approximately 90 days ago, ARCT closed at $8.87 on April 28. Since then, the stock has shed roughly 35% of its value. The decline accelerated in mid-May after first-quarter 2026 earnings revealed revenue of just $2.06 million—far below the $6.30 million consensus estimate—even as the company beat on earnings per share. While the stock briefly recovered to around $7.92 by late May, the broader trend has been one of steady erosion, reflecting investor concerns about the company's revenue runway and the inherent timeline risk in early-to-mid-stage rare disease drug development.
What Drove ARCT Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
Several factors converged to pressure ARCT shares over the past month. The Thermo Fisher collaboration announced on July 2 initially sparked optimism, as the agreement provides Phase 3 manufacturing, clinical research services through Thermo Fisher's PPD™ business, and exclusive commercial manufacturing rights contingent on regulatory approval. However, the market quickly digested that this partnership, while strategically important, does not materially de-risk the Phase 2 outcome for ARCT-032 or generate near-term revenue.
Broader headwinds included continued weakness in the small-cap biotechnology sector, where risk appetite has remained subdued. Institutional ownership remains high at approximately 94.5%, but churn among institutional holders has contributed to downward pressure. On July 18, Wall Street Zen upgraded ARCT from "Strong Sell" to "Sell," underscoring persistent analyst caution. Additionally, the company's pivot away from COVID-19 vaccine revenue toward rare disease therapeutics has created a visible revenue gap—collaboration revenue from the CSL Seqirus partnership has declined meaningfully, while the therapeutic pipeline remains pre-commercial. The stock's high beta of 2.37 amplified broader market weakness, and ARCT breached multiple technical support levels throughout July, triggering further technical selling.
What Drove ARCT Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline reflects a more fundamental reassessment by the market. First-quarter 2026 results, reported on May 7, crystallized investor concerns. Revenue dropped $27.3 million year-over-year as the company deliberately moved away from infectious disease vaccine development. While a net loss of $27.0 million, or $0.95 per share, beat consensus estimates, the top-line miss underscored the revenue challenge. The company emphasized its cash runway extends beyond Q2 2028, but the market appears to be pricing in dilution risk and the uncertainty of binary clinical outcomes.
On the clinical front, the company has made tangible progress—early enrollment in the 12-week Phase 2 CF study, FDA Type C meeting guidance for the OTC deficiency program, and an anticipated end-of-Phase 2 meeting in the second half of 2026. However, without near-term catalysts to shift sentiment, the stock has drifted lower alongside a dwindling revenue base. The May 8 post-earnings spike to $9.22 proved unsustainable, and by late May, ARCT had settled into a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that has persisted through July.
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ARCT Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
The most immediate catalyst is the Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 6, which will provide an updated financial picture and pipeline commentary. Investors will scrutinize revenue trends, cash burn rates, and any updates on enrollment progress for the 12-week ARCT-032 Phase 2 CF study. The company's presentation at the Canaccord Genuity 46th Annual Growth Conference on August 11 may offer additional strategic clarity. Later in 2026, data readouts from the CF Phase 2 study and the end-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA for the OTC deficiency program represent major binary events. On the vaccine front, partner Meiji's commercial performance with KOSTAIVE® in Japan for the 2026/2027 season will provide royalty revenue visibility. Macroeconomic factors, including interest rate policy and biotech sector fund flows, will also influence ARCT's trajectory given its high-beta profile and reliance on long-duration clinical catalysts.
Disclaimer
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ARCT in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on July 14, 2026
ARCT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 35 cases where ARCT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ARCT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 63 cases where ARCT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARCT advanced for three days, in of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARCT as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARCT turned negative on July 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARCT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for ARCT entered a downward trend on July 31, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.856) is normal, around the industry mean (19.620). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.277). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.532). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.769) is also within normal values, averaging (420.906).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ARCT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ARCT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of technology and therapeutics for rare diseases
Industry Biotechnology