ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

ARI in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on December 18, 2024

ARI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 43 cases where ARI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ARI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where ARI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

ARI moved above its 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARI advanced for three days, in of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 250 cases where ARI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 11, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARI as a result. In of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARI turned negative on December 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

The 10-day moving average for ARI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.704) is normal, around the industry mean (1.982). P/E Ratio (37.724) is within average values for comparable stocks, (62.378). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.328) is also within normal values, averaging (7.058). ARI has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.128) as compared to the industry average of (0.068). P/S Ratio (5.811) is also within normal values, averaging (7.099).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ARI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ARI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.