AeroVironment is a defense-technology company rather than an ETF, and it carries substantial sell-side coverage. Reviewing current, attributable targets from firms including Citizens JMP ($170), Macquarie ($210), Barclays ($237), BTIG ($205), Rothschild & Co Redburn ($165), Jefferies ($204), BofA ($185), Needham ($225), J.P. Morgan ($230), UBS ($166), Goldman Sachs ($326), Piper Sandler ($235), Canaccord Genuity ($240), RBC Capital ($180), KeyBanc ($220), Stifel ($220), Clear Street ($247), and Raymond James ($210) produces an arithmetic mean near $215 and a spread of roughly $165 to $326.
That wide range reflects genuine disagreement. More cautious firms frame fiscal 2027 as a transition year with flat earnings and heavy capital spending, while more bullish analysts emphasize long-term demand in loitering munitions, counter-UAS, and directed-energy systems. Recent actions underscore the debate: RBC Capital downgraded the stock to Sector Perform, while Citizens JMP, Jefferies, and BofA lowered targets; conversely, Macquarie initiated with a Buy and a $210 target in October 2026. No reliable source publishes a single "official" consensus, so this $215 figure is an independently calculated average, not a guaranteed outcome.
Shares closed near $117.90 in mid-October 2026, within striking distance of the 52-week low of $116.43 and down roughly 71% from the January 2026 high above $408. Reaching $215 therefore implies an approximately 82% advance, which qualifies as a very large move by any standard measure.
The path would likely require investors to begin pricing fiscal 2028 growth rather than the near-term cash burn. AeroVironment posted record fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.98 billion, up 141% year over year, with annual bookings of $2.7 billion, a 1.4 book-to-bill ratio, and funded backlog of $1.2 billion. Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion, but adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $3.02 to $3.34 is roughly flat, reflecting elevated depreciation, amortization, and 12% to 14% of revenue allocated to capital spending. Because the company assumes a continuing resolution that could delay funding into early calendar 2027, the year is expected to be back-half weighted. A durable move toward $215 would probably require confidence that execution improves, backlog converts, and profitability re-accelerates.
The stock is pressing its 52-week low of $116.43, a critical support level; a decisive break below it would leave little nearby chart support. To the upside, the $165 to $170 zone, where the most cautious analyst targets cluster, marks an early hurdle, followed by the broader $190 to $200 area associated with prior breakdown levels. The long-term trend structure remains deeply negative after the decline from above $408, and any sustained recovery toward $215 would likely need to be accompanied by a decisive change in investor sentiment and fundamental catalysts, not merely a short-term bounce.
Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of roughly 12 months, though individual firms apply different assumptions about budget timing and execution, which explains much of the dispersion. Investors should watch the next quarterly earnings report, updated fiscal 2027 guidance, progress on the continuing resolution and any reconciliation bill, order and backlog conversion, the E-HEL directed-energy award decision, and any further analyst target revisions. Given how rapidly the consensus has been cut, the direction of future estimate changes may matter as much as the levels themselves.
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The $215 central target reflects an average of current analyst price targets, not a consensus guarantee, and it sits far above the stock's recent price near $118. Reaching it would demand an approximate 82% advance and a meaningful shift in sentiment away from near-term budget and earnings concerns. The bull case rests on record revenue, a strong backlog, and a diversified post-BlueHalo portfolio, while the bear case centers on flat earnings guidance, margin pressure, heavy capital spending, and federal funding uncertainty. With ratings still predominantly positive but targets being cut and the stock testing its 52-week low, investors should monitor earnings, guidance, budget developments, and analyst revisions rather than treat any single figure as a foregone conclusion.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been closely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | -9.85% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 71% Closely correlated | -7.15% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 57% Loosely correlated | -8.65% | ||
| RCAT - AVAV | 55% Loosely correlated | -14.88% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 52% Loosely correlated | -6.09% | ||
| RDW - AVAV | 51% Loosely correlated | -19.82% | ||
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