Commerce Bancshares Inc operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank... Show more
Commerce Bancshares operates as a regional bank holding company with a focus on the Midwest, emphasizing a “Super-Community” banking model that combines local market expertise with the operational scale of larger institutions. This positioning supports competitive advantages in customer relationships and deposit stability within its core markets. The company maintains a diversified loan portfolio and wealth management offerings, which help mitigate sector-specific risks compared to more specialized peers. Structural positioning in the regional banking space benefits from ongoing consolidation trends, though it faces competition from both national banks and fintech disruptors in digital services.
The next quarterly earnings report, scheduled for July 16, 2026, represents an immediate catalyst as investors assess performance against consensus estimates for revenue and EPS (earnings per share). Subsequent earnings releases throughout 2026 will offer updates on loan origination trends and margin dynamics. Analyst rating revisions or price target adjustments from firms covering the stock could influence sentiment, with current consensus reflecting a Hold rating from the majority of the eight analysts tracked and an average target suggesting limited near-term upside. Any shifts in broader monetary policy expectations or sector-specific regulatory announcements may also act as catalysts by altering perceptions of growth sustainability.
Regional banks like Commerce Bancshares remain highly sensitive to interest rate movements, as changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy directly affect net interest margins and funding costs. Inflation trends and consumer spending patterns influence loan demand across commercial and retail segments. Geopolitical developments and regulatory climate shifts in banking oversight could introduce additional volatility. Technology adoption in digital banking services continues to reshape competitive dynamics, requiring ongoing investment to maintain market positioning within the evolving financial services landscape.
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Looking toward 2026 and beyond, Commerce Bancshares’ trajectory will likely hinge on sustained loan growth opportunities in its regional footprint and the evolution of its cost structure through operational efficiencies. Margin sustainability depends on effective management of interest rate exposure and deposit franchise strength. Technology transitions in banking services and potential competitive threats from larger or digital-native players represent ongoing considerations. Capital allocation priorities, including dividend policies and strategic investments, could support long-term value creation. Analyst consensus expectations point to gradual EPS growth over the coming years, consistent with broader industry assumptions for regional banks navigating a normalized rate environment and regulatory landscape.
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Disclaimers and Limitationsa regional bank
Industry RegionalBanks
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CBSH has been closely correlated with ZION. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CBSH jumps, then ZION could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CBSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 100% | +0.21% | ||
| ZION - CBSH | 82% Closely correlated | -0.42% | ||
| UCB - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | -0.03% | ||
| UBSI - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | +0.09% | ||
| HWC - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| SSB - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | +0.76% | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CBSH | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 100% | +0.21% |
| Regional Banks industry (360 stocks) | 67% Closely correlated | +0.18% |
| CBSH industry (121 stocks) | 66% Closely correlated | +0.33% |
| Banks industry (433 stocks) | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.03% |
CBSH saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 04, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
The 50-day moving average for CBSH moved above the 200-day moving average on June 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CBSH advanced for three days, in of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 210 cases where CBSH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CBSH moved out of overbought territory on July 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 21 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 74 cases where CBSH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CBSH turned negative on July 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
CBSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CBSH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CBSH's P/B Ratio (1.982) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.355). P/E Ratio (14.371) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.225). CBSH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.990). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.476) is also within normal values, averaging (3.895).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CBSH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock worse than average.