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CBSH vs UCB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) vs. United Community Banks (UCB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CBSH is a larger, more diversified Midwest-focused bank holding company with a strong wealth management franchise, while UCB is a smaller, faster-growing Southeastern regional bank.
- UCB has posted stronger recent revenue and earnings growth, with operating EPS (earnings per share) up 18% in 2025 and net interest margin (NIM) expansion of 36 basis points year over year.
- CBSH offers a more premium valuation and higher profitability metrics, including a return on average assets (ROA) near 1.79%, reflecting its diversified fee-based revenue mix.
- Both banks carry strong capital positions, though CBSH's tangible common equity (TCE) ratio of roughly 11.1% sits above UCB's approximately 9.9%.
- UCB trades at a lower price-to-book multiple, while CBSH commands a richer multiple supported by its stability and brand strength.
- Relative momentum has favored UCB in recent quarters, but CBSH's completed FineMark acquisition broadens its geographic footprint and long-term growth profile.
Introduction
Investors comparing regional and super-community banks often weigh stability and diversification against growth and valuation. This stock comparison examines CBSH (Commerce Bancshares, Inc.) and UCB (United Community Banks, Inc.), two well-regarded U.S. bank holding companies with distinct footprints and financial profiles. Commerce Bancshares operates primarily across the Midwest, while United Community Banks serves fast-growing Southeastern markets. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and sector exposure, the contrast between a premium-quality, diversified franchise and a higher-growth regional lender offers a useful lens for understanding how risk, profitability, and momentum currently diverge across the banking sector.
CBSH Overview and Recent Performance
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a top-tier U.S. bank holding company often described as a "super-community bank," with roughly 140 branch locations concentrated in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado. The company operates across three segments — Commercial, Retail Banking, and Wealth — and its wealth and trust businesses generate a meaningful share of non-interest income, adding diversification beyond traditional lending. In its most recent fiscal year, CBSH reported net income of about $566 million and diluted EPS of $4.04, an increase of 9.5% from the prior year, while total revenue rose approximately 6.5%. Recent market activity has reflected a mixed tone: solid revenue and net interest income (NII) growth have been partly offset by elevated provisions for credit losses and higher non-interest expenses. A notable recent development was the completed all-stock acquisition of FineMark Holdings, which expands Commerce's presence into Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina and signals a strategic push beyond its historic Midwest base.
UCB Overview and Recent Performance
United Community Banks, Inc. is a regional bank holding company headquartered in the Southeastern United States, offering loans, deposits, wealth management, and related financial services across high-growth markets. UCB has delivered comparatively strong recent momentum, with full-year 2025 revenue exceeding $1 billion and growing roughly 12% year over year. Diluted EPS rose to $2.62 from $2.04 a year earlier, while operating EPS climbed 18% to $2.71. The bank's net interest margin (NIM) expanded 36 basis points over the year, aided by loan growth, an improving earning-asset mix, and disciplined deposit pricing. Credit trends have remained broadly stable, though net charge-offs ticked higher in the most recent quarter. Management has also signaled a more assertive posture on share repurchases, supported by a CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) capital ratio of approximately 13.4%, which provides meaningful balance-sheet capacity for capital returns and organic growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names lies in growth versus quality. UCB has been the stronger grower recently, with double-digit revenue expansion, rapid EPS growth, and meaningful NIM improvement, reflecting its focus on faster-growing Southeastern markets and a more traditional lending-centric model. Its lower price-to-book ratio suggests the market prices in somewhat less certainty about that growth trajectory and a slightly thinner capital cushion relative to its larger peer. CBSH, by comparison, delivers steadier, more diversified earnings thanks to its sizable wealth and trust operations, and it carries a higher ROA and a richer valuation multiple. Its lower loan-to-deposit reliance and stronger tangible common equity ratio point to greater balance-sheet resilience. On risk, both banks have shown generally benign credit quality, though CBSH's rising provisions and UCB's modest uptick in net charge-offs warrant monitoring. Sector exposure is a key trade-off: CBSH offers diversification into fee-based wealth income, while UCB offers greater torque to regional economic growth and rate-sensitive lending.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward UCB in the current environment, driven by its superior recent revenue and EPS growth, expanding net interest margin, and comparatively attractive valuation. However, this assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive. CBSH's stronger capital position, diversified revenue base, and lower volatility may appeal more to stability-oriented strategies, and the FineMark acquisition introduces a potential longer-term catalyst. The most suitable choice ultimately depends on whether a trader prioritizes momentum and growth potential or balance-sheet quality and diversification, and market conditions can shift that calculus quickly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CBSH is a Hold and UCB is a Hold.
CBSH's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for CBSH moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 31 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CBSH as a result. In 42 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CBSH just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where CBSH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +2.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CBSH advanced for three days, in 151 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBSH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
CBSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CBSH entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CBSH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CBSH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.860) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (13.850) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.272) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
UCB's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UCB turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where UCB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UCB as a result. In 39 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
UCB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UCB advanced for three days, in 157 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UCB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
UCB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UCB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UCB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.154) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (11.716) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.890) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
CBSH | UCB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 69 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CBSH's Valuation (78) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UCB (81). This means that CBSH’s stock grew similarly to UCB’s over the last 12 months.
UCB's Profit vs Risk Rating (69) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CBSH (75). This means that UCB’s stock grew similarly to CBSH’s over the last 12 months.
CBSH's SMR Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UCB (12). This means that CBSH’s stock grew similarly to UCB’s over the last 12 months.
UCB's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CBSH (52). This means that UCB’s stock grew similarly to CBSH’s over the last 12 months.
CBSH's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UCB (60). This means that CBSH’s stock grew similarly to UCB’s over the last 12 months.
| CBSH | UCB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 2 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 54% | 9 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CBSH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UCB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CBSH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UCB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CBSH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UCB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CBSH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UCB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CBSH (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.32% price change this week, while UCB (@Regional Banks) price change was +8.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
CBSH is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
UCB is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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CBSH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CBSH has been closely correlated with UCB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CBSH jumps, then UCB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CBSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 100% | +2.48% | ||
| UCB - CBSH | 83% Closely correlated | +3.85% | ||
| UBSI - CBSH | 82% Closely correlated | +2.71% | ||
| HWC - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| ZION - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | +1.03% | ||
| ONB - CBSH | 81% Closely correlated | +2.32% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
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| EURL | 42.85 | 0.71 | +1.67% |
| Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3X ETF (EURL) | |||
| EWL | 63.16 | 0.12 | +0.19% |
| iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL) | |||
| FSYD | 46.38 | 0.07 | +0.15% |
| Fidelity Sustainable High Yield ETF (FSYD) | |||
| UUP | 28.92 | 0.02 | +0.07% |
| Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) | |||
| LITL | 33.99 | N/A | N/A |
| Simplify Piper Sandler Us Small-Cap Plus Income ETF | |||