Cleveland-Cliffs stands as one of the largest vertically integrated steel producers in North America, controlling iron ore pellet production alongside flat-rolled steelmaking. This structure provides cost advantages through self-sourced raw materials and reduces exposure to volatile spot prices. The company has pivoted toward high-value products like AHSS, essential for automotive lightweighting, securing contracts with major OEMs (original equipment manufacturers). Expansions such as electrical steel capabilities position it for EV growth, while sustainability initiatives emphasize a closed-loop recycling system to meet regulatory and customer demands for greener steel.
In a competitive landscape dominated by Nucor and U.S. Steel, Cleveland-Cliffs differentiates via its auto-focused order book and tariff-protected domestic footprint. Medium-term market share gains hinge on premium pricing from specialty steels, though global overcapacity poses pricing pressures.
The Q1 2026 earnings release today, April 20, tops the catalyst list, with analysts eyeing guidance on shipments, pricing, and cash flow amid recent revenue growth to $4.9 billion and narrowing losses. Expectations center on EBITDA margins improving toward 7% as steel prices stabilize.
Potential asset sales and partnerships, like the pending POSCO deal, could unlock liquidity for debt reduction or buybacks. Analyst revisions remain mixed: recent JP Morgan target at $10 reflects caution, while consensus holds at $11-12 with some highs near $17, signaling optimism if auto demand rebounds. Trade policy updates on Section 232 tariffs will influence import dynamics, potentially boosting sentiment if protections endure.
The U.S. steel sector anticipates modest demand growth of 1.8% in 2026, fueled by infrastructure projects and auto production, though tempered by high interest rates curbing consumer spending on vehicles. Section 232 tariffs continue shielding domestic producers from cheap imports, supporting pricing power amid global overcapacity.
Cleveland-Cliffs' auto exposure (over 60% of shipments) ties it to EV transitions requiring AHSS and cyclical housing/infrastructure tied to rates and fiscal policy. Commodity inputs like iron ore and energy costs, plus geopolitical tensions, add volatility, but vertical integration mitigates some risks.
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Heading into 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs eyes shipment growth to 16.8 million tons, healthier cash flows from cost cuts, and facility optimizations like the Big River Steel pivot toward high-value products. Margin sustainability depends on premium auto contracts and electrical steel ramps for EVs.
Long-term drivers include market expansion via domestic manufacturing resurgence, technology shifts to sustainable steelmaking, and capital allocation toward debt paydown. Competitive threats from mini-mills and imports loom, but tariff "Fortress America" bolsters positioning. Consensus forecasts negative earnings but improving trajectory, with analyst targets averaging $12 amid recovery hopes.
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a miner of iron ore
Industry Steel
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CLF has been loosely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CLF jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CLF | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| CLF | 100% | +0.51% |
| Non Energy Minerals category (149 stocks) | 4% Poorly correlated | +2.46% |
CLF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 45 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CLF moved out of overbought territory on June 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CLF turned negative on June 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 52 cases where CLF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLF as a result. In of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLF advanced for three days, in of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 219 cases where CLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.350) is normal, around the industry mean (2.689). P/E Ratio (145.667) is within average values for comparable stocks, (98.145). CLF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (2.094). CLF has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.021). P/S Ratio (0.384) is also within normal values, averaging (2.149).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.