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CLF vs CMC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) recently swung back to profitability with its strongest quarter in three years, while Commercial Metals (CMC) posted record full-year earnings and expanding margins.
- CLF is a high-leverage, high-cost producer of flat-rolled steel tied heavily to automotive demand; CMC is a lower-leverage producer of long steel and construction solutions tied to infrastructure.
- CLF carries roughly $7.6 billion in long-term debt versus CMC's modest 1.9x adjusted net leverage, making balance-sheet strength a key differentiator.
- CMC returns cash through a recurring dividend and buybacks, whereas CLF prioritizes debt reduction and pricing leverage.
- Both stocks benefit from trade protection and firmer steel prices, but their risk profiles and catalysts differ meaningfully.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to the North American steel cycle often compare CLF and CMC, two publicly traded names that appear similar on the surface but operate with very different business models and risk profiles. This stock comparison is especially relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand relative performance, market positioning, and how shifting steel prices, trade policy, and construction demand affect each company. Whether the focus is on automotive-linked flat steel or infrastructure-linked long steel, understanding these contrasts can clarify which stock aligns with a given market outlook.
CLF Overview and Recent Performance
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a vertically integrated North American steel producer focused on value-added sheet products, particularly for the automotive industry. The company mines iron ore, produces pellets and direct reduced iron, and processes ferrous scrap through primary steelmaking and downstream finishing.
In recent market activity, CLF delivered its strongest quarter in three years, returning to profitability with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $612 million and GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income of $165 million. Management guided to 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion, well ahead of consensus, citing signed customer contracts and extended lead times. Sentiment improved as hedge funds added to positions and analysts raised price targets. Still, the stock remains volatile given its high leverage, with long-term debt near $7.6 billion, and its dependence on steel prices and automotive production.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, with a focus on rebar, merchant bar, and downstream construction solutions. Its operations span the United States and Europe, and it has expanded into precast concrete through recent acquisitions.
In recent market activity, CMC closed its fiscal year with full-year core EBITDA rising to approximately $1.36 billion from $837 million, while the core EBITDA margin expanded to 14.5%. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.09 beat estimates, and the North America Steel Group delivered a 16.4% adjusted EBITDA margin on stronger metal spreads and the TAG (Transform, Advance, Grow) efficiency program. Management signaled structurally higher free cash flow ahead as capital spending declines, while a recurring dividend and buyback authorization reflect a shareholder-friendly posture. Residential softness and European energy costs remain notable headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between CLF and CMC lies in their end markets and cost structures. CLF is heavily exposed to flat-rolled sheet steel and the automotive sector, which accounted for roughly 28% of its steelmaking revenue, making it more sensitive to cyclical swings in vehicle production and to changes in sheet steel pricing. CMC is weighted toward long steel used in construction, benefiting from federal and state infrastructure funding, data centers, energy, and reshoring projects.
On the balance sheet, CMC holds a clear advantage with adjusted net leverage of about 1.9x, versus CLF's substantially higher debt load, which management is working to reduce toward a target of under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by mid-2027. CLF offers greater operating leverage to rising steel prices but carries correspondingly higher downside risk in a downturn. CMC's recurring dividend and buyback program provide steadier capital returns, while CLF has prioritized debt reduction and a potential return to shareholder returns later. Both companies benefit from trade protection and firmer domestic steel pricing, but their momentum drivers differ: CLF's recent move was driven by an earnings inflection and guidance raise, while CMC's strength reflects margin expansion, backlog growth, and portfolio diversification.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CMC on a relative basis in the current environment. CMC demonstrates more consistent profitability, stronger balance-sheet flexibility, a steadier trend profile, and diversified catalysts across infrastructure and non-residential construction. CLF's recent inflection is notable and its guidance is powerful, but its higher leverage and concentration in automotive sheet steel introduce greater variability. A probabilistic assessment therefore tilts toward CMC for stability and risk-adjusted positioning, while acknowledging CLF's potential for larger upside if steel prices continue to rise.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CLF is a StrongBuy and CMC is a Hold.
CLF in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026
CLF moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 32 of 33 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLF as a result. In 61 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLF just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The 10-day moving average for CLF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for CLF moved above the 200-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLF advanced for three days, in 260 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 216 cases where CLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CLF moved out of overbought territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 52 of 65 cases where CLF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
CLF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.415) is normal, around the industry mean (2.170). P/E Ratio (-8.742) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.879). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.346) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
CMC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +0.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in 214 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
CMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMC as a result. In 51 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.532) is normal, around the industry mean (2.838). P/E Ratio (11.755) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.216). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.320) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.840) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.087).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CLF | CMC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CLF's Valuation (24) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (53) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that CLF’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CLF (100) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CLF’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (59) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CLF (94) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CLF’s over the last 12 months.
CLF's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (58) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that CLF’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CLF's P/E Growth Rating (91) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (96) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that CLF’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CLF | CMC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 81% | 12 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 89% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CLF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CMC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CLF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CMC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CLF’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CMC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CLF’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CMC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CLF (@Steel) experienced а +14.69% price change this week, while CMC (@Metal Fabrication) price change was -3.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -3.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.77%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -2.58%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
CLF is expected to report earnings on Feb 15, 2027.
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jan 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-3.92% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
@Metal Fabrication (-2.58% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
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