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CLF vs CMC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) vs. Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CLF has outperformed year-to-date with a 26.73% gain, driven by steel sector tailwinds, while CMC lags at 1.88% YTD but leads over one year at 61.51%.
- Recent CLF Q1 earnings showed an EPS beat but were marred by an $80 million energy cost spike, causing shares to drop over 2% post-report.
- CMC remains profitable with a positive EPS (TTM $4.47) and recently raised its quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.20 per share.
- Both companies operate in the steel sector amid U.S. tariff protections, but CMC's recycling and fabrication focus offers relative stability compared to CLF's integrated production volatility.
- Analysts rate CMC a Moderate Buy with a $73.33 target, implying upside, while CLF faces near-term cost pressures.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight diverse trading strategies applicable to metals stocks like these for momentum and trend analysis.
Introduction
In the cyclical steel sector, CLF and CMC represent distinct approaches to metals production and processing, making them compelling for comparison. Investors seeking exposure to U.S. steel amid tariff protections and infrastructure demand may weigh CLF's scale as North America's largest flat-rolled steelmaker against CMC's diversified recycling and fabrication operations. Traders focused on relative performance, volatility trade-offs, and recent catalysts will find insights into momentum, profitability, and market positioning in this stock comparison.
CLF Overview and Recent Performance
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America, with integrated iron ore mining, pelletizing, and steelmaking operations serving automotive, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors. Shares trade around $9.73, within a 52-week range of $5.63 to $16.70, reflecting sector volatility. In recent market activity, CLF posted a year-to-date gain of 26.73%, buoyed by improving U.S. steel prices and auto demand, though one-year returns stand at 33.29%. Q1 results featured an EPS of -$0.40, beating estimates amid higher steel shipments, but an unexpected $80 million energy cost surge from weather events pressured margins and sentiment, leading to a post-earnings decline. Broader steel tariffs and potential deals, like with POSCO, support longer-term positioning despite high debt (debt-to-equity 129%) and negative profitability (TTM net loss $1.21B).
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel products like rebar and merchant bar, operating across North America, Europe, and emerging markets. Current shares hover near $67.54, in a 52-week band of $42.00 to $84.87, with a market cap of $7.49B. Recent performance shows modest YTD gains of 1.88%, trailing peers, but robust one-year returns of 61.51% underscore steady growth. Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.16 reflected revenue beats from precast acquisitions, prompting an 11% dividend hike to $0.20 quarterly (yield 1.10%). Positive EPS (TTM $4.47), ROE (12%), and profit margins (6.02%) bolster sentiment, aided by construction demand and recycling efficiency, though broader materials sector pressures temper gains.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CLF and CMC both leverage U.S. steel demand but differ in models: CLF’s vertically integrated production exposes it to raw input swings, while CMC’s scrap recycling and rebar fabrication provide cost efficiencies and construction ties. Growth drivers include tariffs for both, but CMC benefits from acquisitions and dividends versus CLF’s M&A (mergers and acquisitions) pursuits like POSCO. Recent momentum favors CLF YTD, yet CMC shows superior one-year gains and stability (beta 1.47 vs. 1.92). Risks: CLF’s losses and debt contrast CMC’s profitability; sentiment tilts to CMC amid analyst optimism.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CMC for its trend consistency, positive earnings trajectory, dividend growth, and lower relative volatility in recent weeks. While CLF offers higher short-term upside potential from steel catalysts, CMC’s stability and sector positioning suggest a probabilistic edge for momentum traders in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CLF is a Hold and CMC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CLF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCMC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CLF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CLF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CMC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CLF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CMC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CLF (@Steel) experienced а -12.77% price change this week, while CMC (@Metal Fabrication) price change was -4.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -6.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +144.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.91%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -2.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
CLF is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jun 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-6.08% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
@Metal Fabrication (-2.61% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
| CLF | CMC | CLF / CMC | |
| Capitalization | 6.37B | 7.89B | 81% |
| EBITDA | 138M | 1B | 14% |
| Gain YTD | -10.467 | 6.477 | -162% |
| P/E Ratio | 145.67 | 16.40 | 888% |
| Revenue | 18.9B | 8.39B | 225% |
| Total Cash | 45M | 495M | 9% |
| Total Debt | 7.76B | 3.36B | 231% |
CLF | CMC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 27 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 66 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (24) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CLF (67) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CLF’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Metal Fabrication industry is significantly better than the same rating for CLF (100) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew significantly faster than CLF’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (66) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as CLF (97) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to CLF’s over the last 12 months.
CLF's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (45) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that CLF’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CLF's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Steel industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMC (100) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that CLF’s stock grew significantly faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CLF | CMC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 80% | 12 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 73% |
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CLF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CLF has been loosely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CLF jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
CMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMC has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMC jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 100% | +1.29% | ||
| STLD - CMC | 73% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| RS - CMC | 68% Closely correlated | +1.80% | ||
| NUE - CMC | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| MTUS - CMC | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| WS - CMC | 63% Loosely correlated | -1.25% | ||
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