Why GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) Is Up +37% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- CONL climbed roughly 37% over the last 30 days, rebounding from about $4.07 to near $5.56 as Coinbase shares staged a sharp rally.
- The advance reflects the fund's 2x (200%) daily leveraged exposure to COIN, which amplified the underlying stock's gains.
- Over the full quarter, CONL was roughly flat to slightly lower (about -5%), highlighting the volatility and path-dependency of daily-reset leverage.
- CONL is a single-stock leveraged ETF that uses swap agreements; it is non-diversified and carries a net expense ratio of 1.04%.
- Principal drivers include cryptocurrency market strength, expectations for Coinbase trading activity, and shifting investor risk appetite.
GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) is an actively managed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of two times (200%) the daily percentage change of the common stock of Coinbase Global, Inc. It does not track a broad index. Instead, the fund pursues its objective primarily through swap agreements and, at the adviser's discretion, options on the underlying stock, while holding cash and short-term Treasury instruments as collateral.
The portfolio is deliberately concentrated. The fund holds roughly 20 positions, almost all of which are Coinbase equity swap contracts plus cash equivalents, leaving the strategy effectively fully exposed to a single company. Because Coinbase is a financial technology firm operating the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, this structure concentrates CONL's performance entirely in the digital-asset economy rather than across diversified sectors.
The fund is non-diversified, launched in August 2022, and charges a net expense ratio of 1.04%. Assets under management (AUM) are in the range of roughly $500 million. As a leveraged product, CONL is designed for short holding periods: its daily reset means returns over more than one day can diverge materially from twice Coinbase's cumulative move, particularly in choppy markets.
CONL Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, CONL advanced approximately 37%, moving from a close near $4.07 to about $5.56. The move was not gradual: the fund was range-bound near $4 through mid-August before an abrupt inflection, after which it ran to a recent high near $6.50 and has since consolidated in a higher, more volatile band between roughly $5 and $6.50.
The three-month picture is materially different. From a mid-June level near $5.85, CONL fell sharply into late June, recovered through July, dropped again toward $4 in early August, and then rallied. The net result over the quarter is a modest decline of about -5%. This contrast between a strong 30-day advance and a roughly flat-to-negative quarter illustrates both the underlying stock's volatility and the compounding effect of daily-reset leverage, which tends to lag the 2x target during whipsawing periods.
What Drove CONL Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant driver was a sharp rally in Coinbase shares, which CONL's 2x daily exposure mechanically amplified. Over roughly the same span, Coinbase advanced about 29%, from near $148 to roughly $191, while CONL's gain was approximately double that before fees and the drag of daily rebalancing. This is the core dynamic of a leveraged single-stock ETF: the fund's recent performance is essentially a magnified version of Coinbase's own price action.
Coinbase's revenue is closely tied to cryptocurrency trading volumes and digital-asset prices, so its shares tend to track sentiment across the crypto complex. A period of stronger crypto-market activity, improved trading-volume expectations, and renewed risk appetite can lift both Coinbase and, by extension, CONL. Because CONL holds no meaningful diversification beyond its swap exposure, there were no offsetting sector or holdings effects to temper the move.
What Drove CONL Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader three-month trend was shaped by elevated volatility rather than a single linear direction. CONL's mid-June decline, followed by a partial recovery and a second leg lower into early August, mirrors the on-and-off risk tone that has characterized the crypto and high-beta technology complex. For a daily-reset leveraged fund, repeated up-and-down swings generate volatility drag, meaning the fund can end a quarter lower even when the underlying stock is roughly unchanged.
Macroeconomic conditions remained a key influence. Expectations around monetary policy, inflation readings, and the broader appetite for speculative, rate-sensitive assets influenced both Coinbase and the leveraged products built on it. Institutional positioning and ETF flows into leveraged vehicles can also amplify short-term moves, adding to the whipsaw pattern observed across the quarter.
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CONL ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Because CONL's fortunes are almost entirely tied to Coinbase, the most important factors to monitor are those affecting the cryptocurrency exchange business and digital-asset markets. Trading volumes, digital-asset prices, and the pace of retail and institutional crypto adoption are central to Coinbase's revenue trajectory. Regulatory developments and the broader competitive landscape among crypto venues also matter.
On the macro side, interest-rate expectations and inflation trends will remain influential, since leveraged and speculative assets are sensitive to shifts in liquidity conditions and risk appetite. Capital flows into and out of leveraged single-stock products can amplify short-term price swings, while the fund's own daily reset creates structural path-dependency that investors should understand before holding positions beyond a single session. As a high-volatility instrument, CONL carries meaningful risk of rapid drawdowns even in the absence of a directional catalyst in the underlying stock.
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CONL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CONL turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where CONL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 34 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CONL as a result. In 69 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
CONL moved above its 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CONL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +31.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CONL advanced for three days, in 201 of 214 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 141 of 147 cases where CONL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CONL moved out of overbought territory on August 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CONL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
CONL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.