Since its beginning in 1939, Dollar General has grown to become the largest dollar store operator in the United States, with more than 20,000 small-box discount stores across 48 states... Show more
Dollar General's Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings, released on March 12, 2026, cap a year of operational improvements amid a challenging discount retail environment marked by inflation pressures and shifting consumer spending. As a leading value retailer serving rural and suburban communities, the company's results provide insights into low-income household resilience. Investors focus on same-store sales trends, margin recovery from prior inventory issues, and execution of the "Back to Basics" strategy, including store optimizations and consumables emphasis. Strong traffic signals sustained demand, but forward guidance will shape views on 2026 growth amid economic uncertainties.
Dollar General's fourth quarter fiscal 2025 (13 weeks ended January 30, 2026) delivered robust results. Net sales reached $10.9 billion, surpassing the $10.78 billion consensus and growing 5.9% from $10.3 billion in the prior year. Diluted EPS hit $1.93, up 121.8% from $0.87 and well above the $1.61 estimate—a 19.9% beat. Same-store sales advanced 4.3%, fueled by consumables strength. Gross profit improved to $3.322 billion (30.4% margin, +105 bps), while SG&A fell to 24.9% of sales (-165 bps). Operating profit more than doubled to $606.3 million. Full-year net sales grew 5.2% to $42.7 billion, with diluted EPS at $6.85. All key metrics exceeded Wall Street forecasts.
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Despite beating estimates across the board, Dollar General's shares dropped sharply post-earnings, closing down 6.14% at $135.95 on March 12, 2026, after intraday declines up to 11%. The sell-off stemmed from FY2026 guidance implying modest same-store sales growth of 2.2%-2.7%, below some expectations for accelerated momentum. Investors interpreted the conservative outlook as signaling potential demand softening or margin pressures ahead, overshadowing Q4's operational wins. Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with Neutral ratings from Piper Sandler and Market Perform from Telsey Advisory, average price targets around $148.
Dollar General provided FY2026 guidance for net sales growth of 3.7%-4.2%, same-store sales of 2.2%-2.7%, and diluted EPS of $7.10-$7.35, incorporating a 25% tax rate and $0.13 EPS drag from the expired Work Opportunity Tax Credit. Investors should track execution of real estate plans, including new stores and remodels, alongside consumables category performance, which drives over 70% of sales. Margin trends remain critical: gross margin gains from shrink reduction and inventory discipline could offset modest SG&A deleverage. Customer traffic in core rural markets will signal economic health for budget-conscious shoppers. Broader retail dynamics, such as competition from Walmart and tariff impacts on imports, warrant attention. Upcoming Q1 results in late May or June will offer early reads on guidance realization, with focus on digital initiatives and supply chain efficiencies supporting sustained profitability amid moderating growth.
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The 10-day moving average for DG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DG as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DG turned negative on March 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
DG moved below its 50-day moving average on March 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DG advanced for three days, in of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
DG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 224 cases where DG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.545) is normal, around the industry mean (8.249). P/E Ratio (22.770) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.466). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.539) is also within normal values, averaging (2.783). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.690) is also within normal values, averaging (1.458).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an operator of retail stores
Industry DiscountStores