ET stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• Energy Transfer LP reported Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $4.18 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and full-year adjusted EBITDA of nearly $16 billion, a partnership record.
• Net income per common unit was $0.25, missing consensus estimates of $0.34, while revenue of $25.32 billion beat some forecasts but lagged others.
• Distributable cash flow attributable to partners rose to $2.04 billion in Q4, supporting a quarterly distribution increase to $0.335 per unit, up over 3% year-over-year.
• Record volumes across crude oil transportation, NGL fractionation, exports, and interstate natural gas transportation drove operational strength.
• 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $17.45-$17.85 billion, with growth capital of $5.0-$5.5 billion focused on natural gas and NGL projects.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Energy Transfer LP's Q4 2025 earnings highlight the midstream giant's resilience in a volatile energy market. As one of North America's largest pipeline operators, the company benefits from fee-based contracts that shield roughly 90% of EBITDA from commodity swings. This report caps a year of record volumes amid rising natural gas demand from data centers and power generation, while NGL exports hit new highs. Investors watch closely as ET balances growth investments with distribution hikes, targeting 3-5% annual increases. With leverage at 4.0-4.5x EBITDA, the results underscore ET's ability to fund expansions without straining finances, positioning it amid shifting U.S. energy dynamics.

Earnings Expectations or Reported Results

Energy Transfer reported Q4 2025 net income attributable to partners of $928 million, or $0.25 per common unit, down from $1.08 billion, or $0.29, a year earlier. This missed analyst consensus EPS of $0.34. Revenue climbed 29.6% to $25.32 billion from $19.54 billion, surpassing some estimates like $23.56-$24.38 billion but slightly below others at $26.02 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $4.18 billion from $3.88 billion, beating expectations in key segments. Distributable cash flow attributable to partners increased to $2.04 billion from $1.98 billion. Full-year adjusted EBITDA hit a record nearly $16 billion, up 3% from $15.48 billion, though DCF dipped to $8.20 billion from $8.36 billion. Segment highlights included interstate transportation EBITDA up to $523 million and midstream at $720 million; crude oil fell to $722 million.

Volumes set records: crude transportation up 6%, NGL fractionation up 3%, exports up 12%, interstate gas up 4%.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

ET shares closed at $18.61, down 0.75% on February 17, 2026, reflecting mixed sentiment after the earnings release. The EPS miss weighed on the stock despite revenue growth and record EBITDA, with pre-market dips around 0.85%. Investors appeared to focus on operational wins like volume records and raised guidance, but tempered enthusiasm due to lower net income and DCF pressures. Broader midstream peers showed varied reactions, highlighting ET's strong positioning amid data center-driven gas demand.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Energy Transfer's 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $17.45-$17.85 billion signals continued expansion, up from prior $17.3-$17.7 billion after the J-W Power acquisition. Growth capital of $5.0-$5.5 billion targets natural gas (two-thirds) and NGL projects, including Mustang Draw plants online in Q2/Q4 2026, Hugh Brinson Pipeline Phase I in Q4 2026, and data center supplies like Oracle's 900 MMcf/d. The backlog features FGT expansions by 2028-2030 and Desert Southwest at 2.3 Bcf/d by 2029.

Investors should track project execution, as delays could impact ramp-ups. Fee-based margins (~90%) limit commodity risks, but watch NGL spreads and crude volumes amid Permian activity. Leverage remains at 4.0-4.5x, supporting 3-5% distribution growth. Rising power and AI data center demand bolsters interstate gas, while export growth aids NGLs. Cost inflation in construction and regulatory hurdles on pipelines like FGT are risks. Full-year volumes could extend records if U.S. LNG rebounds and domestic power needs grow. Monitor Q1 2026 results for early guidance progress.