Energy Transfer LP (ET), one of the largest midstream energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) in the United States, has not traded above $25 per unit in more than a decade. That fact alone makes $25 a psychologically important milestone. The stock has delivered a strong year-to-date return of roughly 28% in 2026, climbing from around $15.91 at the end of 2025 to approximately $20.36 as of the latest close. With that momentum, the question being asked across financial media and investor forums is straightforward: can Energy Transfer finally break through $25?
Energy Transfer owns and operates one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy infrastructure assets in North America. Its network spans approximately 12,200 miles of pipelines transporting natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), crude oil, and refined products. The company also controls Sunoco LP and USA Compression Partners through general partner relationships. With a market capitalization near $70 billion and an enterprise value exceeding $140 billion, ET is a heavyweight in the midstream sector. The partnership generates the majority of its revenue through fee-based contracts, which provide relatively stable and predictable cash flows regardless of short-term commodity price swings.
Energy Transfer units closed at $20.36 on July 31, 2026, with after-hours trading showing modest gains to $20.40. The stock has been consolidating in a range roughly between $19.00 and the 52-week high of $20.70 over recent months. From a technical perspective, the first meaningful resistance level sits at that 52-week high. A decisive breakout above $20.70 on above-average volume would signal that buyers are gaining control and could open a path toward the psychologically important $21 zone, and eventually $25. On the downside, the $19.00 area has acted as reliable support, with additional structural support near $18.00. The broader trend structure remains bullish, with the stock trading well above its 200-day moving average.
Several catalysts could propel Energy Transfer toward the $25 target. First, the partnership's earnings are accelerating. Management has guided for 9% to 11.5% earnings growth in 2026, driven by new expansion projects entering commercial service. Chief among these are natural gas pipelines designed to serve surging power demand from AI data centers — a secular trend that could support volume growth for years.
Second, Energy Transfer's NGL export infrastructure positions it to benefit from growing global demand for liquefied petroleum gas. The company's Nederland terminal on the Gulf Coast is a critical export hub, and rising international NGL and crude oil shipments translate directly into higher fee-based revenue.
Third, the Lake Charles LNG project remains a powerful option. While Energy Transfer formally suspended development to focus on higher-return projects, the company remains open to third-party partnerships. In an environment where global LNG supply has been disrupted — partly due to geopolitical tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz — a deal to restart Lake Charles could act as a significant catalyst for the unit price.
Finally, valuation multiple expansion represents perhaps the most straightforward path to $25. Energy Transfer currently trades at a forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of approximately 13.8, a discount to the large-cap midstream peer group average. If the market begins to reward ET with a multiple closer to its peers, the unit price could rise substantially even without outsized earnings growth.
The path to $25 is not without obstacles. Approximately 10% of Energy Transfer's earnings retain direct commodity price exposure, meaning a sustained downturn in oil, natural gas, or NGL prices would create a headwind. While the partnership's fee-based model provides insulation, it does not provide immunity.
Higher operating costs represent another concern. Inflationary pressures on labor, materials, and energy inputs have squeezed margins across the midstream industry. Additionally, Energy Transfer carries a substantial debt load — an enterprise value above $140 billion against a $70 billion market cap reflects significant leverage. Rising interest costs could pressure distributable cash flow and limit the partnership's ability to raise distributions at the pace income investors expect.
Execution risk on large capital projects also cannot be ignored. Cost overruns, regulatory delays, or permitting setbacks on multi-billion-dollar pipeline expansions could undermine confidence in the growth narrative. The current quarterly distribution of $0.34 per unit, while attractive at a roughly 6.6% annualized yield, has drawn scrutiny from some analysts who question whether it is adequately covered by free cash flow.
Wall Street sentiment toward Energy Transfer remains overwhelmingly positive. According to MarketBeat, 14 analysts have published twelve-month price targets with an average of $23.45 — already implying meaningful upside from current levels. The high target among major firms sits at $25.00, with Wells Fargo, Stifel, and Raymond James all setting or raising targets to that level in 2026. Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins went further, raising the target to $26 while maintaining a Strong Buy rating, citing improved financial positioning and long-term cash flow growth potential. Jefferies upgraded ET to Buy in May 2026. Out of 21 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, three rate it Hold, and none recommend selling.
Beyond commodity exposure and project execution risk, regulatory uncertainty around pipeline permitting and environmental policy remains a perennial concern for midstream operators. The MLP structure itself adds complexity — tax considerations, K-1 forms, and unrelated business taxable income (UBTI) rules can deter some institutional and retail investors. Market sentiment toward fossil fuel infrastructure can shift quickly based on political developments or macroeconomic data. Investors should also monitor the August 4, 2026 earnings report, which could significantly alter the near-term trajectory depending on results versus expectations.
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The question of whether Energy Transfer can reach $25 is not merely speculative — it is grounded in real earnings growth, expanding infrastructure demand, and broad Wall Street support. The partnership's diversified asset base, fee-based revenue model, and exposure to structural trends like AI-driven power demand and global NGL exports provide a credible foundation for further price appreciation. The roughly 23% climb from $20.36 to $25 is substantial but not unprecedented for a stock that has already gained 28% year-to-date.
That said, valuation multiple expansion is likely the single most important variable. If the market continues to price ET at a discount to peers, earnings growth alone may not be enough to reach the target. Investors should watch for a confirmed breakout above the $20.70 resistance level, the upcoming earnings report, and any news on Lake Charles LNG as key signposts. The ingredients for a move to $25 are present — but the timing and the catalysts must align.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ET has been loosely correlated with OKE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ET jumps, then OKE could also see price increases.