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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 31, 2022

Five Below (FIVE, $160.20) issues guidance below Street expectations

Five Below posted its 2022 guidance that was below consensus, leading to the its shares tumbling on Wednesday.  

For the fourth quarter, the discount retail company posted diluted earnings of $2.49 a share, compared to consensus of $2.48 a share. Revenue of   $996.3 million was slightly below analysts’ forecasts of $1 billion.

The company’s full-year revenue rose +45.2% to $2.85 billion. Earnings per share in the year were $4.95. Both figures were in line with analysts’ expectations.

For the fiscal first quarter of 2022, discount retail company is expecting revenue to range between $644 million and $658 million, assuming a flat to 2% decrease in comparable sales. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect first-quarter revenue of $687 million. The company projects earnings in the range of 54 cents and 62 cents a share, vs. Wall Street consensus of 89 cents.

The outlook from the company reflected  pandemic-driven delays in construction that have resulted in a shift of stores into the second half of the 2022 fiscal year and the first half of 2023. It also includes the ongoing inflationary pressures, according to the company.

Related Ticker: FIVE

FIVE in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on May 02, 2025

The 10-day moving average for FIVE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 02, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 10 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

FIVE moved above its 50-day moving average on April 29, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FIVE advanced for three days, in of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 231 cases where FIVE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FIVE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

FIVE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FIVE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.234) is normal, around the industry mean (10.858). P/E Ratio (33.065) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.733). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.138) is also within normal values, averaging (2.738). FIVE has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (2.796) is also within normal values, averaging (20.083).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FIVE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), Tractor Supply Co (NASDAQ:TSCO), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), Best Buy Company (NYSE:BBY), Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), RH (NYSE:RH), GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME), 1-800-FLOWERS.COM (NASDAQ:FLWS).

Industry description

The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Specialty Stores Industry is 8.34B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 4.65K to 380.15B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 380.15B. The lowest valued company is SIMPQ at 4.65K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. GHST experienced the highest price growth at 64%, while FTEL experienced the biggest fall at -18%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was -59%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 68% and the average quarterly volume growth was 134%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 43
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 57
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 73
Seasonality Score: 14 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a retaier of clothing and other accessories for teens

Industry SpecialtyStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Discount Stores
Address
701 Market Street
Phone
+1 215 546-7909
Employees
22000
Web
https://www.fivebelow.com