FSLY stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Fastly Inc is a cloud computing company that provides an edge cloud platform designed to deliver, secure, and optimize digital experiences over the internet... Show more
Fastly (FSLY) Stock Analysis: AI-Driven Security Momentum Versus a Choppy Pullback
Key Takeaways
- FSLY shares have been roughly flat over the trailing 30 days, consolidating near $22.62 after a sharp analyst-driven spike in early October and a subsequent pullback.
- The stock has climbed about 188% year-to-date, supported by accelerating revenue growth and a multi-quarter improvement in profitability.
- An October 9, 2026 Oppenheimer upgrade to Outperform with a $35 price target triggered a single-session jump of more than 15% before shares gave back much of the gain.
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 23.3% to $183.3 million, with security revenue up 43% as the platform-expansion strategy gains traction.
- Third-quarter results, due November 4, 2026, represent the next major catalyst for the stock.
Current Market Snapshot
Fastly (FSLY) shares are trading in a wide but largely sideways range over the trailing month. After closing near $23.54 about 30 days earlier, the stock recently traded near $22.62, a decline of roughly 3.9% over that stretch. That relatively muted move masks considerable intraday volatility, including a sharp rally in early October followed by a retreat, as investors weigh the company's improving fundamentals against a rich valuation after a prolonged run-up.
The stock remains one of the more volatile names in the edge-computing and cybersecurity complex. Broader sentiment toward AI-related infrastructure has supported the sector, but Fastly's smaller scale and usage-based revenue model continue to make its shares sensitive to shifts in growth expectations and analyst commentary.
Fastly (FSLY) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Fastly operates a programmable edge cloud platform that helps organizations build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the network edge. Its offerings span content delivery and network services, edge compute, and a growing security portfolio that includes a next-generation web application firewall, bot management, DDoS protection, and API security. The company's platform is known for high performance and deep developer programmability, with customers including major media, e-commerce, and technology brands.
The business model is primarily usage-based, meaning revenue scales with customer traffic and platform utilization. Fastly competes with larger infrastructure providers such as Cloudflare (NET) and Akamai (AKAM), as well as the cloud platforms of major hyperscalers. A central element of the company's strategy is cross-selling security and compute products into its existing delivery customer base, which has helped lift margins and improve net revenue retention.
Recent Developments Driving FSLY
The most notable recent catalyst came on October 9, 2026, when Oppenheimer upgraded Fastly to Outperform from Perform and set a $35 price target. Analyst Param Singh cited industry checks pointing to growing contract values, stronger cross-selling of newer security products, and early monetization of agentic AI traffic. The upgrade also referenced expected upside from the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, which the analyst estimated could add roughly $10 million in revenue. Shares jumped more than 15% on the session before pulling back in the following days.
That move built on a broader fundamental improvement. In its second-quarter 2026 results, Fastly reported record revenue of $183.3 million, up 23.3% year over year, alongside a record non-GAAP gross margin of 65.8%. Security revenue grew 43%, while the "other" segment, which includes compute and observability, rose 69%. Management also raised its full-year outlook, signaling continued confidence in the platform strategy.
Product momentum has reinforced the narrative. Fastly brought several new offerings to general availability in September 2026, including AI Runtime Control, AI Firewall, and API Enforcement, which expand the company's Fastly for AI portfolio and target organizations seeking to secure and govern AI model and agent access.
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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
The clearest near-term catalyst is Fastly's third-quarter 2026 earnings report, scheduled for November 4, 2026. Investors will be watching whether revenue lands at the high end of the company's $184 million to $190 million guidance range and whether management raises its full-year outlook, as some analysts anticipate. Commentary on security cross-selling, compute adoption, and any emerging contribution from AI-related traffic will be closely scrutinized.
Longer term, several themes are likely to shape the stock. The pace of agentic AI traffic and the monetization of new AI and security products remain central to the bull case, while competition from larger rivals and ongoing pricing pressure in the core delivery business are key risks. Macroeconomic conditions, including the interest-rate environment and enterprise IT spending trends, will also influence the stock's valuation after a sharp year-to-date advance. As always, Fastly's usage-based model introduces quarter-to-quarter variability that investors should monitor alongside the company's expanding product portfolio.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
FSLY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
FSLY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FSLY as a result. In 78 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FSLY turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
The 10-day moving average for FSLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FSLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for FSLY entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +12.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FSLY advanced for three days, in 225 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
FSLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.382) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.902). P/E Ratio (-39.689) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.583). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.222) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FSLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FSLY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a providesr of real-time content delivery network services
Industry PackagedSoftware