GRPN stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Groupon Inc is a globalised, scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants... Show more
Groupon (GRPN) Stock Analysis: Navigating Earnings and AI Ambitions
Key Takeaways
- Groupon reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.17, meeting estimates, but revenue of $132.7 million missed expectations by 3.25%.
- North America Local revenue grew 4% and billings 9% in Q4, with full-year 2025 Local billings up 14%.
- Company issued 2026 revenue guidance of $513-523 million, implying 3-5% growth, with positive free cash flow of at least $60 million expected.
- Groupon launched a board-level AI committee and appointed Amit Shah, signaling tech-driven strategic shifts.
- Analyst consensus leans "Buy" with average price target around $34.67, suggesting significant upside from current levels near $11.
- Stock has declined sharply in recent sessions post-earnings, trading near 52-week lows amid broader market pressures.
Current Market Snapshot
Groupon (GRPN) stock has faced downward pressure in recent trading sessions, hovering near the lower end of its 52-week range amid post-earnings volatility. The shares have underperformed broader indices, reflecting investor reactions to mixed quarterly results and cautious guidance. North America local metrics show resilience with steady growth in revenue and billings, supported by positive trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of $64.5 million. However, international softness and active customer declines have tempered sentiment. Trading volume has spiked around key announcements, highlighting heightened interest in the company's strategic pivots toward cost discipline and technology integration. Overall, GRPN remains a volatile play in the internet commerce space, with fundamentals pointing to ongoing transformation efforts.
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Recent Developments Driving GRPN Price Action
Groupon's stock has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, largely tied to its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release on March 10, 2026. The company posted adjusted EPS of $0.17, aligning with consensus estimates and marking a stark improvement from the prior year's $1.20 loss per share. Revenue reached $132.7 million, up 2% year-over-year but falling short of the $136.7 million expected, primarily due to softer international performance and a dip in active customers. North America Local stood out positively, with Q4 revenue up 4% and billings surging 9%, while full-year 2025 Local revenue grew 5% and billings 14%, underscoring core market strength amid cost-cutting measures.
The earnings prompted an immediate after-hours drop of over 10%, extending into subsequent sessions with shares falling as much as 14% at one point to around $9.95 before partial recovery. Investors reacted negatively to guidance: Q1 2026 revenue projected at $117-120 million and full-year at $513-523 million (3-5% growth), both below Street forecasts, alongside modest Adjusted EBITDA expectations of $70-75 million. Free cash flow outlook improved to at least +$60 million annually, building on 2025's positive $49.9 million, signaling better liquidity.
On the same day, Groupon announced a board-level Artificial Intelligence Committee chaired by new director Amit Shah, a tech veteran, aiming to leverage AI for personalized deals, merchant tools, and operational efficiency in local commerce. This move fueled some optimism around innovation but was overshadowed by earnings disappointment. Earlier in February, the company previewed the earnings date, building anticipation.
Analyst actions have been supportive: Roth Capital trimmed its target from $47 to $45 but maintained Buy, citing undervaluation; Northland named GRPN a 2026 Top Pick with a $44 target. Consensus "Buy" ratings persist with averages near $34-35, implying over 200% upside. Macro factors like rising oil prices and Middle East tensions added broader market headwinds, but GRPN's price action primarily tracks these company-specific catalysts, with elevated volume reflecting shifting sentiment on growth versus execution risks.
2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
As Groupon advances through 2026, investors should track progress on its 3-5% revenue growth trajectory, targeting $513-523 million, driven by North America Local expansion and potential international recovery. Cost discipline remains pivotal, with Adjusted EBITDA goals of $70-75 million and free cash flow exceeding $60 million underscoring balance sheet strengthening. The new AI committee's initiatives, including enhanced personalization and merchant analytics, could differentiate Groupon in competitive local services, amid rising e-commerce and tech adoption trends.
Risks include persistent customer acquisition challenges, macroeconomic sensitivity in discretionary spending, and execution on AI integration. Opportunities lie in sector tailwinds like digital transformation and partnerships bolstering merchant ecosystems. Competitive positioning against broader platforms will be key, alongside regulatory scrutiny in data privacy. Monitor quarterly billings, active customer trends, and cash generation for signals on sustained profitability and strategic agility in a dynamic internet commerce landscape.
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GRPN's RSI Oscillator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GRPN moved out of overbought territory on May 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 30 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GRPN turned negative on June 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRPN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GRPN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 67 cases where GRPN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRPN as a result. In of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GRPN moved above its 50-day moving average on June 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GRPN advanced for three days, in of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 154 cases where GRPN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GRPN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (16.155) is normal, around the industry mean (9.494). P/E Ratio (14.159) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.555). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (31.912). GRPN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.039). P/S Ratio (1.372) is also within normal values, averaging (57.758).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GRPN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of a shopping website that offers a daily deal on local goods, services and cultural events
Industry InternetSoftwareServices