GET DAILY SIGNALSKeyCorp (KEY) Delivers +24% EPS Growth and Record Revenue in Q3
Key Takeaways
- KeyCorp reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.51, up 24% from $0.41 a year earlier and above the consensus estimate of $0.46.
- Total taxable-equivalent revenue reached a record $2.05 billion, up 8.3% year over year and ahead of the roughly $2.03 billion consensus.
- Net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 2.95%, up 20 basis points from the prior-year quarter, driven by deposit growth and fixed-asset repricing.
- Credit quality improved, with net charge-offs falling to 0.32% of average loans and the provision for credit losses dropping 43% year over year.
- Management guided to a roughly 3.00% NIM for the fourth quarter and reaffirmed a 3.25%-plus NIM target by the end of 2027.
Why This Quarter Matters for KeyCorp
KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY), the Cleveland-based bank holding company, has been shifting its balance sheet toward higher-yielding commercial and industrial loans while allowing lower-yielding consumer and securities assets to run off. That repositioning sits at the center of its plan to widen net interest margin and push returns on tangible common equity above 15%. The third-quarter results offer a useful test of whether deposit growth can support loan expansion in the current rate environment and whether fee businesses such as investment banking and payments are gaining traction. From what I see, the quarter also provides a window into how regional banks are handling shifting rates and ongoing economic uncertainty.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, KeyCorp posted diluted EPS of $0.51, a 24% rise from $0.41 in the same quarter last year and $0.05 ahead of the $0.46 consensus. Net income attributable to common shareholders reached $537 million, up from $454 million a year earlier. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Total taxable-equivalent revenue climbed 8.3% to a record $2.05 billion, topping the roughly $2.03 billion consensus. Net interest income increased 9.6% year over year to $1.31 billion, while net interest margin widened 20 basis points to 2.95%. Noninterest income rose 6% to $744 million, helped by investment banking and debt placement fees of $214 million that jumped 27% sequentially on stronger M&A and syndication activity.
Noninterest expenses rose about 6% year over year to $1.25 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in people and technology. Credit metrics improved, with the provision for credit losses falling to $61 million from $107 million a year earlier and net charge-offs declining to 0.32% of average loans. Return on average tangible common equity reached 15.1%. KeyCorp repurchased $320 million of common stock during the quarter.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of KeyCorp moved higher after the release, climbing more than 4% to around $20.76 in afternoon trading. Investors appeared to respond positively to the EPS beat, record revenue, expanding net interest margin, and better credit quality. Management’s constructive tone—centered on solid deposit gathering, steady loan demand, and healthy capital markets pipelines—helped support the move. The main points of caution remain elevated noninterest expenses and capital ratios that have declined year over year, largely due to the rate environment’s effect on accumulated other comprehensive income rather than any deterioration in credit outlook.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
Management guided to a fourth-quarter 2026 net interest margin of about 3.00%, with average earning assets expected to increase by $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion from the third quarter. The bank also reaffirmed its target of reaching a 3.25%-plus NIM by the fourth quarter of 2027.
Several elements will influence that path. KeyCorp estimates roughly $24 billion in low-yielding securities, swaps, and residential mortgages will roll off the balance sheet by the end of 2027, and management believes that runoff alone could account for about 70% of the margin expansion needed to hit the target. Deposit growth remains a key variable: the bank nearly met its $3 billion second-half client deposit growth goal in the third quarter alone and now expects loan growth to be fully funded by client deposits.
Investors will also want to track the pace of fee-based revenue, especially investment banking pipelines that management called historically elevated, along with commercial mortgage servicing fees that continue to face pressure. Expense discipline stays in focus, with management reiterating full-year expense growth of about 4%. Capital deployment, including the pace of share repurchases and the priority of maintaining the dividend, will be watched as the bank balances growth investments with returns to shareholders.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
One resource I turn to regularly is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It lets me filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics, making it easier to compare peers and spot ideas without spending hours on manual screens. I find it particularly useful when evaluating banks like KeyCorp alongside their industry counterparts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
KEY sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for KEY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 61 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 46 of the 61 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KEY as a result. In 56 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
KEY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for KEY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 127 of 228 cases where KEY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KEY moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
KEY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.286) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (12.052) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a major bank
Industry RegionalBanks