KMX stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of over about 260 retail stores... Show more
Why CarMax (KMX) Is Up +5% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- KMX stock rose approximately +5% over the past 30 days amid improving used vehicle market trends and analyst optimism ahead of Q4 earnings.
- Over the past quarter, the stock is relatively flat at -2%, reflecting mixed quarterly results offset by recent recovery.
- Key drivers include anticipation for upcoming earnings on April 14, stronger CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) income, and rebounding sector sentiment despite softer retail unit sales.
- Q3 FY2026 earnings beat EPS estimates but showed revenue decline due to lower used car demand and pricing pressures.
- Broader macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer confidence influenced the range-bound quarterly performance.
CarMax (KMX) Company Overview and Market Position
CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is the largest retailer of used vehicles in the United States, operating over 240 stores nationwide. The company follows a no-haggle pricing model, offering a wide selection of inspected used cars, along with financing through its CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) segment (in-house lending arm), extended service plans, and wholesale auctions. In the competitive used car sector, CarMax holds a strong position with its omnichannel approach, including online shopping and home delivery, differentiating it from traditional dealerships and online rivals like Carvana (CVNA). Its asset-light model and focus on vehicle acquisition help stabilize performance amid cyclical demand, explaining resilience in recent stock price amid market volatility.
CarMax (KMX) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, KMX stock advanced +5%, moving from around $42 to $44.24 in a steady uptrend with low volatility, supported by positive sector momentum. The price action was trend-driven, bouncing from support near $40.
For the past quarter, the stock experienced a modest -2% decline, trading in a range-bound fashion between $42 and $46. This relatively flat performance followed Q3 earnings volatility but stabilized as used car trends improved.
What Drove KMX Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The +5% gain in KMX stock stemmed primarily from rising optimism around improving used vehicle trends and anticipation for Q4 earnings on April 14. Analysts noted better industry conditions, with CarMax adjusting guidance positively despite prior weakness. Recent trading showed strong sessions, including multi-day gains of over 7%, outperforming peers on volume spikes. Sector sentiment shifted as wholesale prices stabilized, boosting confidence in margins. No major company-specific news like deals emerged, but broader market recovery in consumer discretionary aided the upmove, with shares rebounding from recent lows.
What Drove KMX Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's flat -2% return reflected offsetting forces, starting from Q3 FY2026 results on December 18 showing EPS of $0.43 beating estimates (vs. $0.31 consensus) but revenue down 6.9% to $5.79 billion due to 8% lower retail used unit sales amid weak demand and depreciation. Gross profit fell 13% on softer pricing (retail used GP per unit $2,235), though CAF income rose 9% to $175 million via securitization gains. Management highlighted acquisition focus, marketing increases, and $150 million SG&A (selling, general, and administrative expenses) cuts by FY2027. Macro headwinds like high interest rates curbed affordability, while competitive pressures weighed; however, YTD gains of +14% underscored relative strength versus 1-year -42% drop. Institutional buying and share repurchases ($180 million in Q2) provided support.
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KMX Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q4 FY2026 earnings on April 14 for updates on retail used unit sales, gross profit per unit, and CAF metrics amid evolving used car pricing. Industry trends like wholesale auction dynamics and vehicle supply from trade-ins will influence inventory levels. Macro factors including interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending on big-ticket items remain key. Strategic moves such as marketing spend, digital enhancements, and cost-saving progress toward $150 million SG&A reductions could impact guidance. Risks include prolonged soft demand or regulatory shifts in auto lending, while catalysts may arise from share repurchases or analyst revisions.
Disclaimer
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KMX in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on May 26, 2026
KMX moved above its 50-day moving average on May 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KMX as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KMX just turned positive on May 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where KMX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for KMX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMX advanced for three days, in of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KMX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
KMX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KMX entered a downward trend on May 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KMX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.135) is normal, around the industry mean (3.243). P/E Ratio (28.065) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.027). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.487) is also within normal values, averaging (0.783). KMX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (0.269) is also within normal values, averaging (0.978).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KMX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a holding company whose subsidiaries sell and finance used motor vehicles
Industry AutomotiveAftermarket