LOPE stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Grand Canyon Education Inc is a publicly traded education services company dedicated to serving colleges and universities... Show more
Why Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Stock Is Down -25% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- LOPE shares have declined roughly 25% over the last 30 days, falling from about $155.68 to near $116.55.
- The selloff was driven primarily by third-quarter 2026 results, reported November 4, which showed flat new enrollments and reduced full-year guidance.
- Total enrollment rose 5.2% year over year, but ground-campus new starts stalled and ground enrollment came in about 3% below plan.
- Adjusted EPS of $1.77 was essentially in line with consensus, while revenue of $267.3 million missed analyst estimates.
- Management lowered its full-year revenue and operating-margin outlook and shifted its growth expectations toward fall 2027.
- The company is investing in four initiatives—Common App, a construction college, an Honors College expansion, and a law school—to reignite ground-campus growth.
- For deeper analysis, explore Grand Canyon Education's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast on additional Tickeron pages.
- To see AI-driven trading strategies that may include this ticker, explore Trending AI Robots.
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Company Overview and Market Position
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) is a Phoenix, Arizona-based provider of technology and education services to higher-education institutions, most notably Grand Canyon University (GCU). The company supplies a broad suite of support functions, including learning-management systems, curriculum and program design, marketing and lead generation, admissions and financial-aid counseling, and back-office operations such as finance, accounting, and human resources.
GCE operates across three primary enrollment channels: GCU's traditional ground campus, GCU's online programs, and a growing network of off-campus hybrid classroom and laboratory sites that serve nursing and other healthcare students. Investors follow LOPE closely because its revenue model is tied to enrollment trends, revenue per student, and the expansion of higher-margin hybrid locations, making it a barometer for demand in private postsecondary education.
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, LOPE has fallen approximately 25%, dropping from a closing price near $155.68 to roughly $116.55. The move was abrupt: the stock had traded near $165 in late October before a steep post-earnings decline erased those gains in a matter of sessions.
The broader quarter tells a similar story of volatility. After trading in the $148–$152 range in early August, shares climbed toward a multi-month high near $165.46 on October 22, only to reverse sharply following the third-quarter report. Measured from early August, the stock is down roughly 22%, reflecting how quickly investor sentiment shifted from optimism about enrollment momentum to concern over stalled new-student growth.
What Drove LOPE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was the third-quarter 2026 earnings release on November 4. While adjusted diluted EPS of $1.77 was essentially in line with consensus estimates, service revenue of $267.3 million grew only 2.4% year over year and came in below analyst expectations of roughly $269.75 million. More importantly, new online and ground-campus student starts were flat for the quarter, disappointing the market after management had previously guided to stronger growth.
Management also lowered its full-year revenue guidance to a range of approximately $1.1607 billion to $1.1617 billion and reduced its operating-margin outlook to roughly flat for the year. The company attributed part of the shortfall to a later fall-semester start that shifted about $7.5 million of revenue into the fourth quarter, as well as a mix shift toward online programs with lower net tuition rates. The combination of slower new-enrollment momentum and reduced guidance drove the sharp selloff.
What Drove LOPE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly trend was shaped by a rising-then-falling narrative. Through the late summer and early fall, shares rallied as investors focused on steady total-enrollment growth, an improved operating-income profile, and an aggressive share-repurchase program. The company reported $306.4 million in buybacks year-to-date and, on October 28, announced a $355 million increase to its repurchase authorization.
That optimism reversed after the third-quarter report revealed flat new starts and a ground-campus enrollment figure about 3% below plan. Management conceded that ground-campus growth has been effectively flat for three years and asked investors to look toward a fall-2027 reacceleration, shifting the growth story further out. The result was a repricing of the stock from its late-October peak to levels last seen much earlier in the year.
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LOPE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors will be watching whether new online enrollments return to mid-single-digit growth in the fourth quarter, as management has guided, and whether total enrollment begins to recover. The company's 2027 initiatives—including its entry into the Common App, the new College of Construction and Industrial Technologies, the Honors College expansion, and the newly approved GCU law school—will be key to validating the promised rebound in ground-campus growth.
Additional factors include the pace and effectiveness of share repurchases, trends in revenue per student amid the shift toward lower net-tuition programs, and the performance of the higher-margin hybrid segment. Broader considerations such as changes in lead-generation dynamics and regulatory developments in higher education could also influence sentiment. As always, analyst expectations and any revisions to full-year guidance will remain central to near-term price action.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
LOPE in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LOPE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LOPE as a result. In 46 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LOPE turned negative on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
LOPE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LOPE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LOPE advanced for three days, in 215 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
LOPE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 140 of 257 cases where LOPE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LOPE's P/B Ratio (4.582) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.158). P/E Ratio (14.145) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.484). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.860) is also within normal values, averaging (1.327). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (4.151) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.656) is also within normal values, averaging (27.566).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. LOPE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LOPE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of online postsecondary education services
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