MDB stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Founded in 2007, MongoDB is a vendor of a document-oriented database that accelerates development processes of new applications... Show more
MongoDB (MDB) Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Recap: Revenue Beats, Guidance Sparks Selloff
Key Takeaways
- MongoDB reported Q4 fiscal 2026 total revenue of $695.1 million, up 27% year-over-year, surpassing consensus estimates of approximately $670 million.
- Non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.65, beating analyst expectations of $1.47.
- Atlas revenue grew 29% year-over-year, driving subscription revenue higher to $673.1 million.
- Added 2,700 customers, reaching over 65,200 total, with 2,799 customers generating more than $100K ARR.
- Full-year FY2026 revenue reached $2.46 billion, up 23% year-over-year.
- Shares fell over 20% in after-hours trading due to Q1 FY2027 guidance missing consensus on EPS and revenue.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
MongoDB's fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results, for the period ended January 31, 2026, highlight the company's position as a leader in modern database solutions amid rising demand for cloud-native and AI-driven applications. With Atlas, its fully managed cloud database, powering much of the growth, this earnings report underscores MongoDB's ability to expand in a competitive software landscape. Investors closely watch these figures as they signal resilience in enterprise spending, customer acquisition momentum, and progress toward profitability. Amid macroeconomic headwinds and AI hype, strong Atlas adoption and customer metrics provide critical insights into sustainable growth for this high-valuation stock.
Earnings Expectations or Reported Results
MongoDB delivered robust Q4 fiscal 2026 results. Total revenue reached $695.1 million, a 27% increase from the prior year, exceeding consensus estimates around $668-670 million. Subscription revenue, the core of the business, rose 27% to $673.1 million, while services revenue grew 26% to $22.0 million. Atlas revenue specifically increased 29% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income per share was $1.65, topping expectations of $1.47. GAAP net income per share stood at $0.18. The company added 2,700 customers, bringing the total to over 65,200, including 2,799 with more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR). Full-year revenue hit $2.46 billion, up 23%.
Guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 includes revenue of $659-664 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.15-1.19, below consensus estimates of about $662.5 million in revenue and higher EPS. Full-year FY2027 revenue is projected at $2.86-2.90 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $5.75-5.93.
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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite beating Q4 estimates, MongoDB shares plunged over 20% in after-hours trading on March 2, 2026, and continued lower into March 3. The sharp selloff stemmed from disappointing Q1 FY2027 guidance, which fell short of consensus on both revenue and EPS, signaling potential growth moderation. Investors interpreted the outlook as cautious amid executive changes, including a new Chief Customer Officer and departures in sales leadership. Sentiment turned bearish, with focus shifting from the quarter's strong Atlas momentum and customer growth to near-term profitability pressures.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following Q4 fiscal 2026, MongoDB's trajectory hinges on its FY2027 guidance of $2.86-2.90 billion in revenue, implying 16-18% growth, and non-GAAP EPS of $5.75-5.93. Investors should track Atlas consumption trends, as its 29% growth remains the primary driver, alongside expansions in AI integrations like Voyage AI models and vector search capabilities. Customer metrics, including direct sales ARR and expansions among the 65,200+ base, will indicate retention and upsell potential. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 results execution against conservative guidance, progress in the MongoDB for Startups program (now over $200 billion in aggregate valuation), and partnerships like AWS Global Technology Partner of the Year.
Margin expansion is key, with non-GAAP operating income guided at $545-565 million for FY2027, amid stock-based compensation and sales investments. Macro factors such as enterprise IT budgets, AI workload demand, and competition from relational databases will influence performance. Leadership transitions, including the new Chief Customer Officer, warrant attention for go-to-market stability. Free cash flow generation and the nearly $2.4 billion cash position provide flexibility, but monitoring net retention rates and dollar-based net expansion for deceleration risks is essential in this high-growth software segment.
Disclaimer
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Momentum Indicator for MDB turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MDB saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
MDB moved above its 50-day moving average on May 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MDB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MDB advanced for three days, in of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 232 cases where MDB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MDB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MDB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MDB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.985) is normal, around the industry mean (13.984). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (124.763). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.615). MDB has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.028). P/S Ratio (10.881) is also within normal values, averaging (164.152).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MDB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a developer of MongoDB database
Industry ComputerCommunications