Moderna (MRNA) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Moderna is scheduled to report third quarter 2026 financial results on Friday, November 6, 2026, before the market opens, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET.
• Consensus estimates point to a net loss of roughly $1.16 to $1.27 per share on revenue of about $876 million to $896 million, down from $1.02 billion in the year-ago quarter.
• Management has reiterated 2026 revenue growth of up to 10%, with the third quarter expected to represent roughly 55% of second-half revenue.
• Investors are focused on respiratory vaccine demand, cost discipline, and the company's cash position after a roughly $950 million litigation payment.
• Moderna has beaten consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates in seven of its last eight quarters.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Moderna's business is highly seasonal, with its COVID-19 and flu vaccine franchises generating the bulk of annual sales in the second half of the year. That makes the third quarter a critical checkpoint for gauging whether the company can convert its commercial momentum into a narrower loss. The most recent quarter underscored both progress and pressure: second quarter 2026 revenue rose 2% year over year to $145 million, while the company posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss of $782 million. Cost reductions and pipeline catalysts, including progress on its flu vaccine, sit at the center of the company's turnaround narrative. For investors, this report tests whether seasonal demand and disciplined spending can support a sustainable path toward profitability.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street expects Moderna to remain unprofitable in the third quarter of 2026. Consensus estimates call for a loss of approximately $1.16 to $1.27 per share, compared with a loss of $0.51 per share in the same period a year earlier. Revenue is projected to land near $876 million to $896 million, a decline of roughly 12% to 14% from the $1.02 billion reported in the third quarter of 2025.

These figures reflect the seasonality of Moderna's respiratory portfolio. Management has guided for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and said the third quarter should account for about 55% of second-half revenue. The company has also lowered its full-year cost assumptions, reducing its 2026 GAAP operating expense outlook by about $0.2 billion to $4.7 billion and projecting a year-end cash balance of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion.

Historically, Moderna has shown an earnings "beat rate" of seven out of the last eight quarters, and its shares have tended to move sharply around results. Key metrics to watch include product sales mix, research and development (R&D) and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, cash and investments, and any commentary on the 2026 revenue-growth target.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment around Moderna has improved notably in 2026, with the stock climbing sharply from earlier lows as investors warmed to the company's cost-cutting progress and advancing pipeline. Heading into the third quarter report, the market is weighing two competing forces: a seasonally stronger revenue quarter against lingering concerns about cash burn and respiratory demand softness.

Key risk factors include the outcome of the company's norovirus program, which did not meet early statistical success criteria at a Phase 3 interim analysis, as well as uncertainty around how COVID-19 and flu vaccination rates will trend this season. A revenue or EPS miss, or cautious guidance on the 2026 growth target, could pressure the stock, while stronger-than-expected product sales or improved cash discipline could reinforce the recent rally.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Looking past the third quarter, investors should focus on three areas: revenue trajectory, expense control, and pipeline catalysts.

First, watch how management frames the second-half revenue outlook. Because the fourth quarter is also a major selling period for respiratory vaccines, commentary on booking trends, order timing, and vaccination uptake will be important for assessing whether the company can hit its up-to-10% growth target for 2026.

Second, monitor cost and cash trends. Moderna has made meaningful progress reducing R&D and SG&A spending, and it has projected a year-end cash balance of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. Any update to these figures, particularly after the roughly $950 million litigation payment made in July, will shape how investors view the company's runway.

Third, track pipeline milestones. The company's seasonal flu vaccine candidate has faced a closely watched U.S. regulatory decision, and interim data from its melanoma program are expected in the second half of 2026. Additional approvals or positive data readouts could expand the addressable market beyond COVID-19 and influence the long-term investment case.

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