NASA stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
The investment seeks to provide long-term growth... Show more
Why Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) Is Down 17% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) fell roughly 17% over the trailing 30 days, extending a decline that has left the fund about 38% below its post-debut closing high.
- Over the past quarter, NASA is down approximately 13%, reflecting a sustained unwind of the premium once tied to its unique pre-IPO SpaceX exposure.
- A mid-October risk-off move, a hotter-than-expected September CPI print, and renewed rate-hike bets pressured high-beta, unprofitable space names across the board.
- Holdings such as Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) led the slide on company-specific setbacks, including a Neutron launch delay and an analyst downgrade.
- NASA remains a concentrated, actively managed thematic fund with a beta well above the broad market and heavy exposure to pre-profit space companies.
Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
NASA is an actively managed thematic equity ETF (exchange-traded fund) that targets the emerging commercial space economy. Rather than tracking a fixed index, its managers select companies across the space value chain, including launch providers, rocket and propulsion systems, satellite communications, Earth observation, and space-enabled data and infrastructure. Launched in late March 2026, the fund holds roughly three dozen positions spanning market capitalizations and geographies, with the largest weightings concentrated in the United States.
Top holdings include SpaceX (SPCX), Rocket Lab (RKLB), EchoStar (SATS), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Viasat (VSAT), MDA Space, Intuitive Machines (LUNR), and Firefly Aerospace (FLY). Sector exposure is heavily skewed to industrials, with additional weightings in communication services and information technology. The fund carries an expense ratio of 0.75% and a beta of about 3.8 (a measure of sensitivity to broad-market moves), meaning it has historically swung far more than the overall market. That concentrated, high-beta structure helps explain the fund's sharp price swings in both directions.
Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, NASA declined from roughly $24.75 to about $20.47, a drop of approximately 17%. The move was not a single-day gap but a choppy, trend-driven slide that accelerated in the middle of October, when the fund fell from around $25.96 to near $20.47 over a span of about two weeks.
The quarterly picture is similar in direction but milder in magnitude. About three months earlier, NASA traded near $23.69, leaving the fund down roughly 13% over the trailing quarter. Much of that decline occurred as investors repriced the fund after the end of its unique pre-IPO SpaceX access following the company's June 2026 initial public offering.
What Drove NASA Price in the Last 30 Days
The recent 30-day decline reflected a mix of macroeconomic pressure and company-specific setbacks among the fund's largest holdings. A hotter-than-expected September CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, at 3.7% versus a 3.6% estimate, revived bets on additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, sending the Nasdaq lower and pushing high-beta, speculative growth names into a sharp drawdown.
Within the portfolio, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell roughly 10% to a 52-week low after an analyst downgrade to Neutral and a reduced price target, citing SpaceX's expanding direct-to-cell push and a slower satellite deployment pace. Rocket Lab (RKLB) also declined after postponing the debut of its Neutron rocket to 2027, citing a manufacturing issue. Broader weakness in SpaceX, Planet Labs (PL), and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) compounded the selloff.
What Drove NASA Performance Over the Last Quarter
The longer-term trend reflects a repricing rather than a single event. NASA's 2026 debut was met with enormous demand partly because the fund offered retail investors rare indirect access to SpaceX before it went public. When SpaceX completed its initial public offering in June 2026, reported at a $1.77 trillion valuation, that exclusive-access premium evaporated, and the fund's SpaceX weighting began trading as an ordinary public position.
Since then, NASA has faced persistent pressure from its concentrated, high-beta, and largely unprofitable holdings. Heavy capital expenditure, elevated cash burn, and reliance on capital raises across the space sector have kept valuations sensitive to interest-rate expectations and risk appetite. The result was a roughly 29% drawdown from June to mid-August, followed by further declines into October that left the fund about 38% below its post-debut closing high.
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NASA ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, the key variables for NASA are the path of interest rates, the pace of commercial space commercialization, and the operational progress of its largest holdings. A sustained shift in monetary policy expectations could continue to weigh on high-beta, pre-profit growth names, while any easing of rate pressure could support a recovery in valuations. Investors should monitor launch schedules and capital-raising activity, both of which can move sentiment quickly across the space sector.
Fundamentally, the space economy retains long-term structural growth drivers, including expanding satellite constellations, direct-to-device connectivity, and rising government and defense demand. However, the fund's concentrated, high-beta profile means those structural tailwinds will likely be accompanied by continued volatility. Capital flows into and out of thematic space products, the competitive landscape, and regulatory developments around spectrum and launch activity are all likely to shape NASA's behavior in the months ahead.
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for NASA turns negative, indicating new downward trend
NASA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 3 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 3 of the 3 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NASA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 2 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 2 of the 2 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
NASA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NASA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 1 of 1 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NASA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NASA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 4 of 4 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NASA advanced for three days, in 14 of 17 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
NASA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 5 of 7 cases where NASA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
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