Why GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD) Is Up +32% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- NVD gained roughly 32% over the trailing 30 days as its underlying security, NVIDIA (NVDA), declined approximately 14% over the same window.
- The fund seeks to deliver -2x (inverse) the daily return of NVIDIA, so it tends to rise when the chipmaker falls and lose value when NVIDIA advances.
- Over the trailing quarter, NVD is roughly flat to slightly lower (about -3%), underscoring the volatility and daily-reset behavior of leveraged inverse products.
- The recent rally reflected a broad AI and semiconductor selloff driven by financing concerns, hotter-than-expected inflation data, and disappointing results from major technology companies.
- NVD does not hold individual stocks; its exposure is built through swap agreements and cash, making it a short-term trading vehicle rather than a long-term portfolio holding.
- NVIDIA's next earnings report, scheduled for mid-November, is a pivotal near-term catalyst for the fund.
- For additional detail on this ticker's Price Targets and Forecast, explore the dedicated analysis pages.
- Discover Trending AI Robots to explore automated strategies built on technical and fundamental signals.
GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
The GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD) is an actively managed, non-diversified single-stock exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to -2x (negative two times, or -200%) the daily percentage change in the common stock of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). Rather than holding a basket of equities, the fund builds its short exposure through swap agreements and other derivatives, with the bulk of its portfolio held in cash. NVD carries a net expense ratio of 1.35% and manages roughly $60 million in assets under management (AUM), a measure of the total market value of assets the fund oversees.
Because the fund resets its -2x exposure each trading day, returns over periods longer than a single session can diverge materially from -2x NVIDIA's cumulative return—a phenomenon known as compounding or volatility decay. This structure is central to NVD's recent ETF performance: it functions as a leveraged bet against NVIDIA, amplifying daily moves in both directions.
GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD) Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, NVD climbed about 32%, rising from roughly $3.45 to approximately $4.54, while NVIDIA shares fell about 14% over the same period. The ETF price movement was not a straight line: the fund traded in a relatively contained range through early October before accelerating higher in the second half of the month as selling pressure on semiconductor stocks intensified.
The trailing-quarter picture is more muted. From early-August levels near $4.70, NVD is down roughly 3%, reflecting a volatile round-trip in which the fund slid through September and into early October before the late-month rally erased most of the decline. The divergence between the 30-day and quarterly results illustrates how daily resetting causes leveraged inverse funds to produce returns that differ from a simple -2x of the underlying over longer horizons.
What Drove NVD Price in the Last 30 Days
Because NVD is an inverse NVIDIA vehicle, its gains were the mirror image of NVIDIA's decline. Several factors weighed on the chipmaker and the broader AI hardware complex:
- Inflation and interest rates: hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) readings in mid-October reignited expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, pressuring richly valued growth and AI-related stocks.
- AI financing concerns: investor worries over the funding of AI infrastructure intensified, including scrutiny of data-center operator debt and questions about whether hyperscaler spending can translate into adequate returns.
- Big-tech earnings: disappointing results and cautious commentary from companies including Intel and Amazon, which highlighted softer PC demand and heavy AI-related capital spending, dampened sentiment across the semiconductor group.
These forces pushed NVIDIA from roughly $234 in early October to about $202 by early November, lifting NVD correspondingly as the inverse exposure gained value.
What Drove NVD Performance Over the Last Quarter
Over the trailing three months, NVD has been approximately flat to slightly lower (about -3%), but that headline obscures significant swings. Early in the quarter the fund traded near $4.70 before declining through September and into early October, when strength in NVIDIA pushed NVD toward its lows around $3.20–$3.30. The subsequent rebound reflects a broader rotation out of crowded AI and semiconductor positions as investors reassessed valuations, funding costs, and the durability of AI-driven earnings growth. As a daily-reset leveraged inverse product, NVD has also been subject to compounding effects during these swings, which can erode long-term returns even when the underlying moves in the fund's favor on a daily basis.
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NVD ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to influence NVD in the months ahead. NVIDIA's earnings report in mid-November is a pivotal catalyst, as guidance will shape expectations for AI chip demand and could trigger sharp moves in either direction. The path of inflation and Federal Reserve interest-rate policy will remain central, given the sensitivity of high-multiple growth stocks to borrowing costs. Ongoing scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing and hyperscaler capital expenditure—including free cash flow trends at major cloud providers—could drive further sector rotation. Investors using NVD should also remain mindful of the structural risks of leveraged inverse products, including daily-reset compounding, volatility decay, and the potential for rapid losses if NVIDIA rebounds. NVD is designed for short-term tactical positioning rather than buy-and-hold investing.
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for NVD turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NVD saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 46 of the 47 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVD just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 26 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
NVD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +11.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVD advanced for three days, in 131 of 151 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 47 of 50 cases where NVD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVD moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 5 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 5 of the 5 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
NVD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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