ORLY stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Founded in 1957, O’Reilly Auto Parts is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories, serving both DIY and professional customers... Show more
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Analysis: Durable Demand Meets a Discounted Valuation
Key Takeaways
- ORLY traded near $85, roughly 3.4% lower over the trailing 30 days and about 20% below its September 2025 record high, even as operating results stayed strong.
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 8% to $4.89 billion, with comparable-store sales up 6.0% and diluted EPS up 10% to $0.86.
- Professional (do-it-for-me) sales climbed 12.5%, extending a streak of double-digit growth and more than offsetting modest DIY demand.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance, and the consensus analyst rating remains Buy with an average price target near $108.
- Aggressive share repurchases — about $2.4 billion in the first half of 2026 — continue to support earnings-per-share growth.
Current Market Snapshot
O'Reilly Automotive shares have pulled back to the mid-$80s, a level that leaves the stock down roughly 19% over the trailing 12 months and modestly lower on a 30-day basis. The decline stands in contrast to the company's fundamentals: O'Reilly posted record revenue and earnings in its most recent quarter, and its comparable-store sales have now grown for more than three decades. Investor sentiment appears caught between confidence in the company's durable cash generation and concern about fading price inflation, softer do-it-yourself traffic, and a premium valuation. Within the automotive aftermarket sector, O'Reilly remains a favored large-cap holding, with the consensus rating reflecting a broadly bullish Street view.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Founded in 1957 and headquartered in Springfield, Missouri, O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company operates roughly 6,700 stores across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada, serving both do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers and professional service providers through a dual-market strategy. Its competitive strengths include a highly efficient distribution network, best-in-class parts availability, and a growing private-label portfolio that now accounts for more than half of sales and supports margins. Investors follow ORLY for its consistent comparable-store-sales growth, strong free cash flow, and a long-running share buyback program that has steadily reduced the outstanding share count.
Recent Developments Driving ORLY
O'Reilly's second-quarter 2026 report, released in late July, was the most significant recent catalyst. Revenue increased 8% to $4.89 billion, comparable-store sales rose 6.0%, net income grew 7% to $715 million, and diluted earnings per share climbed 10% to $0.86. Professional sales advanced 12.5% to $2.47 billion, representing slightly more than half of quarterly revenue, while DIY sales rose 4.9% to $2.34 billion. Management raised its full-year outlook, lifting comparable-store sales guidance to 4% to 6% and earnings guidance to a range of $3.20 to $3.30 per share.
At its 2026 Analyst Day in mid-September, the company outlined plans to open more stores than in any prior year and noted that Mexico, where it already operates more than 100 locations, could eventually support more than 1,000 stores. In late September, Bernstein initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating and a $94 price target, a more cautious stance than the Street's overall Buy consensus. The company also continued returning capital to shareholders, repurchasing $2.43 billion of stock during the first half of 2026.
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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape ORLY's performance. The company plans 225 to 235 net new store openings in 2026, supported by a fragmented industry that offers continued share-gain opportunity. The steady rise in the average age of vehicles on U.S. roads remains a durable demand tailwind, as older cars require more frequent maintenance and repairs. Momentum in the higher-margin professional channel and disciplined capital returns should continue to underpin earnings growth.
Key risks include a potential slowdown in same-SKU price inflation, softer discretionary DIY traffic, tariff and trade uncertainty, and a valuation that still trades at a premium to the broader market. Competitive developments from peers such as AutoZone (AZO) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP) also warrant monitoring. Investors will likely focus on the company's next quarterly earnings report, expected in late October 2026, for updated comparable-sales trends and any revisions to full-year guidance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
ORLY's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ORLY turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where ORLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ORLY as a result. In 49 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
ORLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORLY advanced for three days, in 207 of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 136 of 267 cases where ORLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
ORLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ORLY's P/B Ratio (-39.670) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.841). P/E Ratio (28.487) is within average values for comparable stocks, (40.223). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.620) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.798) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ORLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a retailer of auto parts, tools, supplies, and accessories
Industry AutoPartsOEM