OTLY stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Oatly Group AB produces and distributes oat-based food and beverage products... Show more
Why Oatly Group (OTLY) Stock Is Down -31% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Oatly Group shares have fallen roughly 31% over the past 30 days, from about $11.86 on September 28 to near $8.22 in late October.
- The decline accelerated on October 28, 2026, when third-quarter results missed analyst expectations and shares dropped sharply.
- Third-quarter revenue rose 9.1% year over year to $243.1 million, while the company reported a net loss of $0.86 per ADS.
- Greater China revenue fell 15%, and the company's ongoing strategic review of that business continues to pressure sentiment.
- Management reiterated its 2026 constant-currency revenue growth outlook of 8% to 10%.
- Measured from a late-July peak near $15.26, the stock has shed roughly 46% over the trailing quarter.
- For additional detail on this ticker, review Oatly's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast.
- Explore how AI-driven trading strategies are positioned on this stock through Trending AI Robots.
Oatly Group (OTLY) Company Overview and Market Position
Oatly Group AB is a Sweden-based food and beverage company and the world's original and largest oat drink maker. Founded more than three decades ago and headquartered in Malmö, Sweden, the company has built its business around oat-based alternatives to traditional dairy, spanning oat milk, ice cream, yogurt, cooking creams, spreads, and on-the-go drinks. Its flagship Barista oat drink is widely used by cafés and food-service operators.
The Oatly brand is available in more than 40 countries, with operations organized across three reporting segments: Europe & International, North America, and Greater China. The company trades on the Nasdaq as American Depositary Shares under the ticker OTLY. Investors follow the stock closely because of its role as a bellwether in the plant-based category, its long-running push toward profitability, and the strategic questions surrounding its Greater China business.
Oatly Group (OTLY) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, OTLY has moved decisively lower. The shares closed at $11.86 on September 28 and traded near $8.22 by late October, a decline of roughly 31%. The move was not gradual: the stock held in a relatively narrow range through most of the period before a sharp single-session drop following its third-quarter earnings release.
The trailing quarter tells a broader story of a round trip. Shares rallied strongly in late July, climbing from below $10 to a closing peak of $15.26 on July 29, before giving back those gains through August, September, and October. From that late-July high, the stock is now down approximately 46%, leaving it below the levels where it began the third quarter.
What Drove OTLY Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the company's third-quarter 2026 earnings report, released before the market opened on October 28, 2026. Oatly reported a net loss of $27.5 million, or $0.86 per ADS, narrowing from a loss of $65.3 million, or $2.15 per ADS, a year earlier. Revenue increased 9.1% to $243.1 million, led by 20% growth in the Europe & International segment. However, the per-ADS loss came in wider than the FactSet consensus, which had anticipated a loss of about $0.81 per share, and the shares fell sharply in response.
The most significant headwind was Greater China, where revenue declined 15% amid what management described as intensified competition in the food-service market. Oatly is conducting a strategic review of its China operations and expects to complete that review during 2026, an uncertainty that has weighed on investor sentiment throughout the period. The company reiterated its prior guidance for 2026 constant-currency revenue growth in the range of 8% to 10%.
What Drove OTLY Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly move reflects a sharp reversal rather than a steady trend. In late July, shares surged after Oatly reported second-quarter results, climbing from around $9 to more than $15 in a matter of days as investors responded to improved operating momentum. That enthusiasm faded over the following three months, as persistent concerns about profitability, the trajectory of the Greater China segment, and broader consumer-staples sentiment eroded the gains.
By late September and October, the stock had drifted back toward the low end of its range, and the third-quarter report on October 28 completed the reversal. The combination of a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, China revenue weakness, and an unresolved strategic review in that market has left the stock below its early-July levels despite the company's progress in Europe & International and its reiterated full-year growth outlook.
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OTLY Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to shape Oatly's stock in the quarters ahead. The completion and outcome of the Greater China strategic review, expected during 2026, will be a central focus, as it could determine the future scale and economics of that segment. Investors will also monitor whether Europe & International can sustain its double-digit volume and revenue growth while North America continues to stabilize.
Margin progression and the company's path toward sustained profitability remain key themes, alongside the reiterated 2026 constant-currency revenue growth target of 8% to 10%. Broader risks include input-cost inflation and freight constraints, which management has cited in recent periods, as well as competitive pressure across the plant-based category. Upcoming earnings reports, guidance updates, and any analyst rating changes will provide further signals on whether the recent decline reflects a temporary reset or a longer-lasting reassessment of the company's growth trajectory.
Disclaimer
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OTLY's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 9 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where OTLY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 38 of 50 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +5.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OTLY advanced for three days, in 195 of 243 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
OTLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on OTLY as a result. In 72 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for OTLY turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
OTLY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for OTLY moved below the 200-day moving average on November 10, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OTLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for OTLY entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-10.250) is normal, around the industry mean (6.914). P/E Ratio (-1.871) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (8.458). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.049) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.411) is also within normal values, averaging (5.003).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. OTLY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OTLY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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Industry FoodMajorDiversified