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Penske Automotive Group operates in 19 US states and overseas... Show more

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A.I.Advisor
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A.I.Advisor
Nov 02, 2026

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Analysis: A $16.3 Billion Take-Private Deal Anchors the Shares

Key Takeaways

  • Penske Automotive Group (PAG) shares traded near $213 in early November 2026, up roughly 4.6% over the trailing 30 days, hovering just above the $212 per-share cash price set in a pending take-private agreement.
  • Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 4.5% year over year to about $8.42 billion, beating consensus estimates, while adjusted earnings per share came in slightly below Wall Street expectations.
  • Commercial truck dealership revenue climbed roughly 22% year over year, emerging as a key growth driver even as new-vehicle retail margins remained under pressure.
  • A go-private transaction led by Penske Corp. and Mitsui & Co., valued at approximately $16.3 billion, remains the dominant influence on the share price and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027.
  • The company raised its quarterly dividend 1.4% to $1.46 per share and recorded $68.5 million in equity earnings from its 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions.
  • For additional detail, explore Penske Automotive Group's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
  • Explore Trending AI Robots to review top-performing, actively traded AI strategies across thousands of tickers.

Current Market Snapshot

Penske Automotive Group shares have traded in a relatively tight range in recent weeks, with the stock ending the trailing 30-day period modestly higher. The share price has remained anchored near the $212 level specified in the company's pending take-private agreement, reflecting how deal-related considerations have largely set a ceiling on near-term trading activity. The stock has also advanced significantly over the longer term, gaining roughly 34% since the start of 2026, outpacing the broader market's gains over the same period.

This price action reflects a market that is weighing the company's steady operating performance and commercial truck momentum against the mechanics of a proposed acquisition. Because the go-private transaction offers shareholders outside the acquiring investor group $212 per share in cash, the shares have gravitated toward that value rather than trading purely on fundamentals.

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Business Overview and Competitive Position

Penske Automotive Group is a diversified international transportation services company headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. It operates one of the world's largest networks of franchised automotive and commercial truck dealerships, selling new and used vehicles, parts, service and collision repair, and finance and insurance products across North America, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia.

The company's business spans several segments. Its retail automotive operations focus on premium and import brands, while Premier Truck Group serves as a leading heavy-duty commercial truck dealership network in North America. The company also operates used-vehicle superstores under the CarShop brand and, through Penske Commercial Vehicles, distributes commercial vehicles and power systems in Australia, New Zealand, and parts of the Asia-Pacific region. Additionally, Penske Automotive Group holds a 28.9% ownership stake in Penske Transportation Solutions, a diversified transportation services provider. The company is a member of the S&P MidCap 400, Fortune 500, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 indexes.

Recent Developments Driving PAG

The most significant development shaping Penske Automotive Group shares is the proposed take-private transaction led by Penske Corp. and Mitsui & Co. Under the agreement, shareholders outside the acquiring investor group would receive $212 per share in cash in a deal valued at approximately $16.3 billion, including debt. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions, with Penske Corp. set to hold approximately 64% of the company and Mitsui owning the remaining 36%.

On the operating front, the company reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 28, 2026. Revenue increased 4.5% year over year to about $8.42 billion, exceeding analyst estimates, while adjusted earnings came in slightly below consensus. Results included about $6.3 million in costs tied to the take-private transaction. Commercial truck dealership revenue climbed roughly 22% year over year, with new and used truck sales up significantly, while retail automotive revenue rose 1.4%. New-vehicle deliveries declined modestly even as used-vehicle deliveries increased, and gross profit per vehicle remained under pressure. The company also announced a 1.4% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.46 per share.

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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch

The clearest forward-looking catalyst for Penske Automotive Group is the completion of its take-private transaction, which the company anticipates will close in the first quarter of 2027. Investors will be monitoring the satisfaction of closing conditions and any regulatory or shareholder approvals required to finalize the deal. The spread between the current share price and the $212 cash consideration remains a key focus for market participants.

Beyond the transaction, the company's operating trajectory hinges on several factors, including the durability of commercial truck demand, new- and used-vehicle gross profit trends, service and parts growth, and the performance of its equity-method investment in Penske Transportation Solutions. Broader macroeconomic conditions, including interest rates and consumer affordability, along with currency movements across its international operations, will also influence results. Investors should watch for updates on same-store sales, margin trends, and any developments related to the company's dividend and capital allocation policies as the transaction progresses.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for PAG with price predictions
Nov 04, 2026

PAG's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory

The RSI Indicator for PAG moved out of oversold territory on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 16 of the 18 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 89%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PAG as a result. In 61 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.

PAG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for PAG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.

Following a +0.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAG advanced for three days, in 207 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 65 cases where PAG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.

PAG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for PAG entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.396) is normal, around the industry mean (1.497). P/E Ratio (15.410) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.247). PAG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.087) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.438) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).

A.I.Advisor
published Dividends

PAG paid dividends on September 01, 2026

Penske Automotive Group PAG Stock Dividends
А dividend of $1.44 per share was paid with a record date of September 01, 2026, and an ex-dividend date of August 14, 2026. Read more...
A.I.Advisor
published Highlights

Industry description

The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Automotive Aftermarket Industry is 4.73B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.57M to 51.89B. CVNA holds the highest valuation in this group at 51.89B. The lowest valued company is GORV at 1.57M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Automotive Aftermarket Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 0%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19%. CRMT experienced the highest price growth at 45%, while AZI experienced the biggest fall at -9%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Automotive Aftermarket Industry was 26%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 25% and the average quarterly volume growth was 55%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 58
Price Growth Rating: 63
SMR Rating: 76
Profit Risk Rating: 82
Seasonality Score: 17 (-100 ... +100)
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Analysis: A $16.3 Billion Take-Private Deal Anchors the Shares