The Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC) launched in April 2026 as the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) dedicated exclusively to rare-earth companies operating outside China. It spent its early weeks trading near the top of its range before sliding as underlying mining and processing stocks sold off. With the fund now trading well below its launch levels, investors are asking a straightforward question: can REXC reclaim the $25 mark?
That level matters for both technical and psychological reasons. It sits just beneath REXC's $25.39 52-week high, making it a natural benchmark for a recovery, and it aligns roughly with the weighted-average analyst price target on the fund's holdings, which market data providers have placed in the mid-to-high $20s. Reaching $25 would signal that the thematic thesis behind the fund has regained momentum after a difficult stretch.
REXC tracks the Nasdaq Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China Index, giving investors a rules-based way to own companies involved in the mining, separation, refining, and processing of rare-earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium — materials essential to electric-vehicle motors, wind turbines, defense systems, and consumer electronics. The fund is heavily concentrated in the materials sector and is non-diversified, holding roughly 40 to 45 names.
The two largest positions dominate performance. Australian-listed Lynas Rare Earths accounts for roughly 20% of assets, while MP Materials (MP) represents close to 19%. Other notable holdings include USA Rare Earth (USAR), NioCorp Developments (NB), and Energy Fuels (UUUU). Because the top two names carry nearly 40% of the weight, a sustained rally in Lynas and MP Materials would be the single most direct route for REXC to climb back toward $25.
The core bull case is policy-driven. Western governments have made clear that dependence on China for rare-earth processing is a strategic vulnerability, and public money is beginning to flow. MP Materials has a U.S. Department of Defense partnership that includes a price floor on neodymium-praseodymium, while USA Rare Earth closed a substantial financing round and has pursued government funding under the CHIPS program. NioCorp has also received Department of Defense support for its Elk Creek project.
If rare-earth prices stabilize and climb, and if these projects hit their development milestones, REXC's holdings could re-rate significantly. Analysts covering the underlying companies maintain a broadly constructive view, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and average 12-month price targets that imply meaningful upside from current levels.
The obstacles are substantial. REXC is a young fund with a small asset base — roughly $50 million in assets under management (AUM) — and thin trading volume, which can translate into wider bid-ask spreads and higher trading costs. Its beta, a measure of volatility relative to the broader market, has been reported well above three, meaning the fund can swing far more sharply than a broad index.
More fundamentally, many of the underlying companies remain pre-revenue or years away from full commercial production. Several flagship projects do not expect meaningful output until later this decade. That leaves the fund exposed to execution risk, permitting delays, financing needs, and commodity-price swings — all on top of a concentrated portfolio where a single large holding can drag the entire fund lower.
From a technical standpoint, the $14.64 52-week low marks the clearest support zone, with additional demand historically appearing in the $16 to $17 area. On the upside, the fund has repeatedly faced resistance near the $20 level, a zone it would need to clear convincingly before a push toward $25 becomes realistic. The $25 mark itself aligns with the prior high and would represent a breakout to recovery territory.
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Can REXC realistically reach $25? The target is attainable but not guaranteed. The path runs directly through the fund's two largest holdings, and it depends on a sustained recovery in rare-earth pricing, continued government funding, and progress on long-dated development projects. The analyst consensus on the underlying names suggests meaningful upside, which lends credibility to the target.
At the same time, REXC's small size, high volatility, and reliance on early-stage companies mean the journey back to $25 is unlikely to be smooth. Investors should monitor rare-earth price trends, funding announcements for the fund's top holdings, and whether the fund can clear the $20 resistance level — a prerequisite for any serious challenge of the $25 milestone.
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