REZI stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Resideo Technologies Inc is a manufacturer and developer of technology-driven products and components that provide critical comfort, energy management, and safety and security solutions... Show more
Resideo Technologies (REZI) Stock Analysis: Spin-Off Momentum Meets Earnings Test
Key Takeaways
- Resideo Technologies reported Q1 2026 results beating revenue and EPS estimates, with $1.91B in sales (up 8% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.65.
- Stock experienced volatility post-earnings, dropping sharply amid mixed guidance reactions despite reaffirmed FY2026 outlook.
- Progress on ADI Global Distribution spin-off advanced with Form 10 filing and leadership appointments, potentially unlocking value.
- Analysts maintain a positive stance, with average price target of $49 implying over 60% upside from recent levels.
- Reaffirmed FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $3.00-$3.20 exceeds consensus, supporting growth narrative in smart home and security.
Current Market Snapshot
Resideo Technologies (REZI) has navigated choppy waters in recent trading sessions, reflecting broader pressures in the industrial and consumer technology sectors. The stock, which focuses on smart home comfort, security, and energy management solutions, showed resilience earlier in the year but faced sharp pullbacks following quarterly results. Trading within its 52-week range amid elevated volatility (beta of 1.75), REZI's price action underscores sensitivity to earnings delivery and strategic updates like the ongoing ADI business separation. Investor sentiment balances strong fundamentals against macroeconomic headwinds, positioning the shares for potential rebound if execution remains crisp.
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Recent Developments Driving REZI Price Action
Resideo Technologies' stock has been shaped by key operational and strategic milestones over recent weeks. The standout event was the Q1 2026 earnings release on May 12, where the company posted revenue of $1.91 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of $1.88 billion by 1.8% and marking 8% year-over-year growth from $1.77 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.65, beating expectations of $0.61 by 7.4% and edging up from $0.63 a year prior. Adjusted EBITDA reached $215 million, 7% above forecasts with an 11.2% margin. These beats highlighted strength in the ADI segment (professional security and fire channels) and resilient demand for smart thermostats and home controllers, despite softer residential markets.
However, the market reaction was muted to negative, with shares dropping over 15% the next day to around $30. This stemmed from guidance that, while reaffirming full-year non-GAAP EPS of $3.00-$3.20 (above prior consensus of $2.79) and revenue near $7.85 billion, included Q2 EPS of 71-75 cents—aligning with but not exceeding heightened expectations. Investors appeared disappointed by the lack of upward revisions amid ongoing residential headwinds and supply chain normalization.
Advancing the strategic spin-off of ADI Global Distribution—a $2 billion+ revenue distributor of security and low-voltage products—Resideo filed a Form 10 registration statement and named leadership, including a new CEO for the standalone entity. This move, anticipated to streamline focus on products while creating two pure-plays, fueled optimism earlier but contributed to post-earnings scrutiny over execution risks and liquidity (total debt ~$3.53B, cash $663M). Management emphasized margin expansion to 12-13% and new product ramps in the earnings call.
Analyst actions provided counterbalance: Oppenheimer reiterated Buy, while Morgan Stanley (from February) held Overweight with a $50 target. Consensus target holds at $49 from three firms, signaling ~60% upside. Broader macro factors, including interest rate sensitivity in housing and industrial slowdowns, pressured sentiment, yet ADI's pro channel stability offset residential softness. Earlier activist interest from Alta Fox and CD&R stake builds (February) had supported a year-to-date rally of ~13%, but recent sessions reflect profit-taking and caution. Overall, these developments link beats to dips via tempered guidance, with spin-off as a pivotal sentiment driver.
2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
As Resideo progresses through 2026, investors should track the ADI Global Distribution spin-off's completion, expected to sharpen focus on high-margin smart home products while crystallizing value in the distribution arm. FY2026 guidance centers on revenue of $7.8-$7.9 billion (midpoint ~5% growth) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.00-$3.20, bolstered by ADI's steady pro demand and residential recovery via thermostats and controllers. Consensus aligns closely, projecting $7.77B revenue and $2.90 EPS from three analysts.
Opportunities lie in margin expansion (target 12-13% adjusted EBITDA), new product launches in energy management, and synergies from prior acquisitions like Snap One. Risks include persistent housing market weakness, supply chain disruptions, and elevated debt levels post-spin (~$3.53B total debt vs. $663M cash). Competitive dynamics in IoT/security, regulatory shifts in data privacy, and macroeconomic factors like interest rates will influence trajectory. Balanced positioning in products (higher growth) and distribution (stability) offers resilience, with execution on separation pivotal for multiple expansion.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
REZI sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for REZI moved below the 200-day moving average on May 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for REZI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where REZI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where REZI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 50 cases where REZI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on REZI as a result. In of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for REZI just turned positive on June 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where REZI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where REZI advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. REZI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.932) is normal, around the industry mean (5.262). P/E Ratio (87.433) is within average values for comparable stocks, (153.001). REZI's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (2.120). REZI has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (0.616) is also within normal values, averaging (1.681).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. REZI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a provider of household security solutions
Industry ElectronicsDistributors