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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 14, 2019

Ralph Lauren's (RL, $109.81) Q4 earnings exceed expectations, but North American sales decline

Ralph Lauren’s fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts' estimates, but its North American sales experienced a year-over-year decline. The report sent the the clothing brand's shares down -5% Tuesday.

The company reported earnings  of $1.07 per share for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of 89 cents per share (based on FactSet poll). The figure marks a +20% climb from the year-ago quarter.

Total revenue of $1.5 billion also came in higher than analysts’ estimates of $1.48 billion. But it had a year-over-year decline of -1.5%. Even as sales from Europe and Asia increased +4% and +6% respectively, North American revenue plunged -7%.

Ralph Lauren hiked its quarterly dividend by +10% to 69 cents per share. The next dividend is scheduled to be paid out on July 12, to shareholders of record on June 28. 

Related Ticker: RL

RL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on May 06, 2025

The 10-day moving average for RL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 06, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

RL moved above its 50-day moving average on May 02, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RL advanced for three days, in of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 255 cases where RL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for RL moved out of overbought territory on May 29, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where RL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 04, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RL as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RL turned negative on May 30, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

RL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. RL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.589) is normal, around the industry mean (3.082). P/E Ratio (20.932) is within average values for comparable stocks, (28.555). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.329) is also within normal values, averaging (1.991). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.877) is also within normal values, averaging (1.500).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nike (NYSE:NKE), Skechers USA (NYSE:SKX), VF Corp (NYSE:VFC), G-III Apparel Group Ltd (NASDAQ:GIII), Canada Goose Holdings (NYSE:GOOS), Lakeland Industries (NASDAQ:LAKE).

Industry description

Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Industry is 6.86B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.66K to 140.24B. NKE holds the highest valuation in this group at 140.24B. The lowest valued company is SQBGQ at 1.66K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7%. FIGS experienced the highest price growth at 18%, while TALN experienced the biggest fall at -25%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Industry was -16%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -62% and the average quarterly volume growth was -10%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 48
P/E Growth Rating: 65
Price Growth Rating: 59
SMR Rating: 60
Profit Risk Rating: 75
Seasonality Score: -17 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a manufacturer of men's and women's apparel, accessories and skin care products

Industry ApparelFootwear

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Apparel Or Footwear Retail
Address
650 Madison Avenue
Phone
+1 212 318-7000
Employees
23300
Web
https://www.ralphlauren.com