SE stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Sea started as a gaming business, Garena, but in 2015 expanded into e-commerce... Show more
Why Sea Limited (SE) Is Down -21% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- SE stock declined -21% over the past 30 days, primarily triggered by a Q4 2025 earnings EPS miss despite revenue beat, leading to a sharp 16% single-day drop.
- Over the past quarter, the stock fell -37%, reflecting sustained pressure from analyst price target cuts and concerns over rising growth investments.
- Main drivers include higher credit provisions in SeaMoney, increased logistics and warehouse costs in Shopee, and cautious 2026 guidance on margins.
- Competitive pressures in Southeast Asian e-commerce and sector-wide market sentiment contributed to volatile, downward price movement.
- Strong full-year revenue growth of 36% and positive cash flow highlight underlying business strength amid short-term profitability worries.
Sea Limited (SE) Company Overview and Market Position
Sea Limited (SE) is a Singapore-based global technology company founded in 2009, operating an integrated ecosystem across three core pillars: digital entertainment via Garena, e-commerce through Shopee, and digital financial services with Monee (formerly SeaMoney). Shopee dominates as the leading e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and a key player in Brazil, while Garena develops and publishes popular online games like Free Fire. Monee provides mobile wallets, payments, lending, and insurtech solutions, increasingly penetrating underserved markets.
The business model leverages synergies—Shopee drives transaction volume for Monee lending and payments, while Garena boosts user engagement. This positions Sea as a regional powerhouse in high-growth emerging markets with rising digital adoption. Recent stock behavior ties to its exposure: robust gross merchandise value (GMV) growth in Shopee supports revenue, but heavy investments in logistics and credit expansion pressure near-term margins, explaining the price pullback despite fundamentals.
Sea Limited (SE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, Sea Limited (SE) stock dropped from approximately $105 to $83, marking a -21% decline. The movement was volatile and trend-driven downward, with a pivotal 16% plunge on the Q4 earnings day (March 3), followed by choppy trading in the $78-$90 range amid high volume.
For the past quarter, the stock fell from around $131 to $83, a -37% decrease. This reflects a steady bearish trend, underperforming broader markets, with shares trading below the 50-day moving average of $102 and 200-day moving average of $144, signaling weakened momentum in stock price analysis.
What Drove SE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Sea Limited's Q4 2025 earnings release on March 3, where adjusted EPS of $0.63 missed consensus estimates of $0.80 by 21%, despite revenue of $6.9 billion beating expectations by 6% (up 38% YoY). Investors focused on rising costs: higher credit loss provisions in Monee from loan portfolio expansion to $7.9 billion, and elevated logistics expenses in Shopee amid GMV growth to $36.7 billion.
Analyst reactions amplified the selloff, with firms like Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen, and Morningstar cutting price targets (e.g., from $173 to $121) citing warehouse investments, tax rates, and margin compression. Market sentiment shifted negatively on 2026 guidance implying flat Shopee EBITDA in absolute dollars, fueling fears of sustained reinvestment over profitability. Sector influences, including e-commerce competition from rivals like Temu, added pressure on price movement.
What Drove SE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's -37% decline built on broader narratives starting from early-year highs near $131. Key was the earnings miss overshadowing full-year strengths: 36% revenue growth to $22.9 billion and net income up 260% to $1.6 billion, driven by Shopee profitability, Garena bookings resurgence, and Monee revenue up 57%.
Macroeconomic factors like potential inflation from regional tensions and softening consumer demand in emerging markets weighed on sentiment. Institutional behavior shifted with insider selling and reduced optimism amid high beta (1.63), amplifying volatility. Competitive positioning in Southeast Asia's e-commerce, coupled with rising credit risks (NCO, or net charge-offs), exerted cumulative downward force, while broader tech sector corrections contributed.
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SE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q1 2026 earnings for progress on Shopee margins and Monee credit quality, including updates on loan portfolio growth and NPL (non-performing loan) ratios. Industry trends like e-commerce penetration in Southeast Asia and Brazil, plus competition dynamics, remain critical. Macro environment factors such as regional economic demand, inflation, and interest rates could impact consumer spending and lending. Strategic developments in logistics expansion, AI integration, and partnerships warrant attention, alongside risks from regulatory changes in fintech or gaming. Upcoming analyst revisions and institutional flows will influence sentiment in market trends.
Disclaimer
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SE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SE turned positive on March 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where SE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SE's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 42 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where SE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SE as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SE advanced for three days, in of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SE entered a downward trend on March 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.039) is normal, around the industry mean (92.992). P/E Ratio (33.913) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.594) is also within normal values, averaging (2.702). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.063) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.378) is also within normal values, averaging (10.206).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of online gaming services
Industry InternetRetail