Shopify (SHOP) Stock: Price, Chart & AI Analysis
Shopify offers an e-commerce platform primarily to small and medium-size businesses... Show more
Shopify (SHOP) Q4 2025 Earnings Recap: Revenue Hits Record High Amid EPS Miss
Key Takeaways
- Shopify reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.67 billion, up 31% year-over-year and beating consensus estimates of $3.59 billion.
- Adjusted EPS came in at $0.48, missing expectations of $0.51, while GAAP net income reached $743 million.
- Full-year 2025 revenue grew 30% to $11.56 billion, with free cash flow of $2.01 billion at a 17% margin.
- GMV surged 31% to $123.8 billion in Q4, driven by strength across merchant sizes, regions, and channels.
- Company authorized a $2 billion share repurchase program, effective February 17, 2026.
- Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue growth in the low 30s percent range year-over-year.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Shopify's Q4 2025 earnings cap a pivotal year for the e-commerce platform, marked by accelerated revenue growth and robust profitability amid a competitive landscape. With full-year revenue up 30% to $11.56 billion, the company demonstrated resilience in merchant solutions and subscription services, fueled by holiday demand and AI-driven innovations like Sidekick and Catalog. Investors closely watch these results as they signal Shopify's ability to sustain high growth at scale while generating significant free cash flow—$2 billion for the year—supporting investments and now share repurchases. Amid broader software sector volatility and AI disruption concerns, this report underscores Shopify's merchant-first strategy and international expansion, influencing its valuation in a market trading at premium multiples.
Earnings Expectations or Reported Results
Shopify released its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 11, 2026, for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. Revenue totaled $3.672 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of $3.59 billion by 2.2% and rising 31% from $2.812 billion in Q4 2024. Gross profit increased to $1.693 billion, with operating income at $631 million. GAAP net income was $743 million, while adjusted figures reflected core strength excluding equity investments.
Adjusted EPS of $0.48 fell short of the $0.51 consensus, primarily due to higher operating expenses and mix shifts, though up from prior year. Key metrics shone: GMV hit $123.8 billion (up 31%), monthly recurring revenue reached $205 million, and free cash flow was $715 million (19% margin). Full-year highlights included 30% revenue growth and 29% GMV expansion to $378.4 billion. Revenue beat expectations, but EPS miss highlighted margin pressures from growth investments.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shopify shares initially surged in pre-market trading on February 12, 2026, up as much as 11% on the revenue beat and buyback announcement. However, sentiment shifted post-earnings call, with the stock closing down approximately 7% at around $109–$118, reflecting disappointment over the EPS miss and Q1 free cash flow margin guidance slightly below prior year levels. Trading volume spiked over 450% above average, indicating heightened investor focus. While revenue acceleration and AI progress bolstered optimism, concerns over profitability sustainability and software sector headwinds weighed on sentiment.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Shopify provided Q1 2026 guidance for revenue growth in the low-thirties percent range year-over-year, aligning with Q4 momentum, and gross profit dollar growth in the high-twenties percent. Operating expenses are expected at 37–38% of revenue, with stock-based compensation around $140 million and free cash flow margin in the low-to-mid teens, slightly below Q1 2025. This outlook signals continued investment in AI tools like Universal Commerce Protocol and international expansion, where revenue grew 36% in 2025.
Investors should track execution on the $2 billion share repurchase, starting February 17, 2026, which could support valuation amid volatility. Key metrics include GMV trends across enterprise and SMB segments, Gross Payments Volume growth (up 37% in 2025), and Shop Pay adoption (62% GMV increase). Merchant retention and offline revenue (up 27%) will indicate platform stickiness. Broader dynamics like U.S. e-commerce market share (>14%), B2B GMV surge (96%), and AI integration progress remain critical. Cost discipline amid scaling, potential tariff impacts on global trade, and competitive pressures from Amazon and BigCommerce warrant attention. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 results in late April or early May 2026 and further AI product rollouts.
SHOP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHOP turned positive on February 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where SHOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SHOP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHOP as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for SHOP moved below the 200-day moving average on March 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SHOP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SHOP entered a downward trend on February 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.516) is normal, around the industry mean (10.598). P/E Ratio (137.617) is within average values for comparable stocks, (73.927). SHOP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.564) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.890). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.599) is also within normal values, averaging (53.874).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHOP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
an operator of eCommerce website that allows customers to sell online by providing software to create an online store
Industry PackagedSoftware