SWIM stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Latham Group Inc is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of in-ground residential swimming pools, liners, and covers in North America, Australia, and New Zealand... Show more
Why Latham Group (SWIM) Is Down -16% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- SWIM stock declined approximately -16% over the past 30 days amid volatile trading following a post-earnings peak.
- Over the past quarter, the stock is down around -7%, reflecting broader sector pressures despite strong Q4 results.
- Q4 2025 earnings beat estimates with 15% revenue growth, driving an initial 12% surge, but subsequent sell-off due to seasonal slowdown concerns.
- Acquisition of Freedom Pools bolstered international expansion, contributing positively to guidance.
- U.S. in-ground pool market contraction influenced sentiment, though company outperformed peers.
- 2026 guidance signals 9% sales growth, focusing on fiberglass pools and covers.
Latham Group (SWIM) Company Overview and Market Position
Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM) is the largest designer, manufacturer, and marketer of in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers fiberglass and packaged pools, liners, automatic safety covers, and related products under brands like Latham, Narellan, CoverStar, Radiant, and GLI. It sells through a network of dealers and distributors, emphasizing innovation in fiberglass pools and safety covers to capture market share in high-growth regions like the Sand States.
Its business model leverages operational efficiency, market-leading positions, and strategic acquisitions to drive growth amid cyclical pool industry demand. Fundamentals like margin expansion and outperformance versus a contracting U.S. pool market explain resilience, though stock price sensitivity to seasonal factors and macro housing trends contributes to recent volatility.
Latham Group (SWIM) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, SWIM stock fell approximately -16%, from a close near $6.90 on February 20, 2026, to around $5.78 recently. The movement was volatile: shares spiked over 11% on March 4 following Q4 earnings, reaching highs near $8.97 early March, before declining steadily to current levels in a range-bound pattern amid higher volume.
For the past quarter, the stock dropped about -7%, from $6.20 on December 23, 2025. Performance featured an earnings-driven rally offset by post-peak correction, with overall trend-downward but less severe than the 30-day period, marked by elevated volatility (beta ~1.7) and trading within $5.38-$8.97.
What Drove SWIM Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Latham Group's Q4 2025 earnings release on March 3, reporting $100 million in revenue (up 15% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $10.5 million, beating estimates despite a shrinking U.S. pool market. This drove a sharp +12% jump on March 4 to ~$7.20, fueled by upbeat 2026 guidance ($580-610M sales, +9% midpoint) and the accretive Freedom Pools acquisition adding ~$20M sales.
However, profit-taking and concerns over seasonal demand slowdown post-winter led to a pullback, with shares dropping to $5.38 lows. Analyst sentiment remained mixed (Hold rating), and sector weakness in consumer durables amplified the decline, resulting in net -16% monthly price movement.
What Drove SWIM Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's -7% decline reflected sustained industry headwinds, including contracting U.S. in-ground pool starts due to high interest rates and softening housing demand. Despite full-year 2025 sales of $546M (+7%), macroeconomic pressures like inflation and elevated rates curbed discretionary spending on pools.
Latham's competitive edge in fiberglass pools (higher margins) and autocover demand provided offsets, with market share gains. Institutional interest waned post-Q3 results, contributing to range-bound trading. The earnings beat and acquisition news offered a late-quarter lift, but cumulative sector and macro drag dominated, leading to modest net loss.
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SWIM Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q1 2026 earnings in May for progress on 9% sales growth guidance and margin expansion. Track U.S. housing starts, interest rate changes, and pool industry trends, as demand in Sand States remains key. Freedom Pools integration and further M&A could drive international revenue. Watch fiberglass pool adoption, autocover sales, and competitive dynamics. Risks include prolonged high rates curbing construction, while catalysts like easing monetary policy or strong seasonal demand may boost sentiment.
Disclaimer
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SWIM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on March 12, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SWIM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWIM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SWIM entered a downward trend on April 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SWIM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SWIM as a result. In of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SWIM just turned positive on April 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where SWIM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SWIM moved above its 50-day moving average on April 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWIM advanced for three days, in of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SWIM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.781) is normal, around the industry mean (4.504). P/E Ratio (68.667) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.325). SWIM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.962). SWIM has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (1.356) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWIM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
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