GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is TFI International (TFII) Stock Down -12.80% Today?
Key Takeaways
- TFII shares tumbled roughly 12.80% on Friday, falling from a prior close of $112.54 to around $98.13.
- The primary catalyst was a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings outlook, with adjusted EPS guidance of $1.30–$1.40 landing well below the $1.67 consensus.
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.67 also missed the $1.75 Street estimate, while revenue of $2.23 billion came in roughly in line.
- Weakness in the less-than-truckload (LTL) segment, where operating income fell 43%, weighed on the results despite a strong truckload rebound.
- The move reflects an earnings-driven re-rating rather than a broad-market selloff, as traders reset expectations for the company's near-term profitability.
- Traders are watching upcoming freight-market data and any signs of LTL margin recovery in the fourth quarter.
- For more detail on valuation and technical levels, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for this ticker.
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Opening Summary
TFI International Inc. (TFII), the Montreal-based transportation and logistics company operating less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, and logistics networks across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, saw its shares plunge on Friday. The stock fell approximately 12.80% to trade near $98.13, down from a previous session close of $112.54. The selloff came in the first full session after the company reported third-quarter results and, more importantly, issued fourth-quarter guidance that fell sharply short of Wall Street's expectations.
Earnings Miss and Soft Guidance
The dominant driver behind the decline was the company's forward-looking outlook. For the fourth quarter, TFII guided adjusted diluted earnings per share to a range of $1.30 to $1.40, a notable step down from the roughly $1.67 analysts had been modeling. Guidance below consensus is frequently the sharpest catalyst for a post-earnings drop, and this print was no exception, prompting investors to reprice the shares immediately.
The third-quarter results themselves were mixed. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.67, missing the $1.75 consensus estimate, even as revenue rose 13.2% year over year to $2.23 billion, essentially in line with forecasts. On a GAAP basis, net income climbed to $105.71 million, or $1.28 per share, from $84.69 million, or $1.02 per share, a year earlier.
Less-Than-Truckload Weakness Weighs on Results
Beneath the headline numbers, a clear divergence between business lines emerged. The truckload segment was a bright spot, with operating income nearly doubling—up 91% to $100.2 million on 15% higher revenue, despite the company running fewer trucks. The logistics unit also delivered, with operating income jumping 59% to $49.4 million on 22% revenue growth.
However, the less-than-truckload segment lagged significantly. LTL operating income fell 43% to $44.4 million, and the unit's operating margin compressed to 6.6% from 11.3% a year earlier. Management noted that pricing initiatives in LTL only began to benefit results late in the quarter and into October, a signal that the segment's recovery remains a work in progress. That weaker LTL performance, combined with lower free cash flow, tempered what was otherwise a solid truckload-driven quarter.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline reflects a company-specific, earnings-driven repricing rather than broad weakness in the transportation complex. The magnitude of the move—more than 12%—indicates that investors were caught off guard by the guidance shortfall, with the stock surrendering much of its recent range and trading toward the lower end of its 52-week span. Elevated selling pressure was evident as the shares broke below key technical support, underscoring a shift in sentiment toward the stock's near-term earnings trajectory.
The action was also consistent with a period in which Wall Street had already been trimming expectations. Several analysts had lowered price targets in recent weeks on concerns about a two-speed freight market—strong truckload pricing and tightening capacity contrasted with a slower, more methodical LTL recovery. Friday's guidance effectively validated that cautious stance.
What Comes Next for TFII
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether the company can stabilize and ultimately rebuild LTL margins, which management indicated began improving late in the third quarter and into October. The full-year capital expenditure forecast, excluding real estate, was set at $225 million to $250 million, providing additional color on the company's investment posture. Freight-market dynamics—particularly truckload rate trends and the pace of LTL volume recovery—will remain central to the investment debate.
Risks remain balanced. A continued truckload rebound and improving LTL pricing could support a re-rating, while persistent margin pressure or a softening macro backdrop could keep the shares under pressure. Traders will also monitor upcoming freight data and management commentary for signs that the fourth-quarter guidance proves conservative.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TFII's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for TFII moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 65 cases where TFII's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TFII just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TFII's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TFII advanced for three days, in 193 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
TFII may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TFII as a result. In 73 of 107 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The 50-day moving average for TFII moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TFII declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for TFII entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TFII’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.382) is normal, around the industry mean (2.868). P/E Ratio (27.583) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.761). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.180) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.300) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TFII’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of freight transportation and logistics services
Industry Trucking