THRM stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Gentherm Inc is an automotive parts manufacturer... Show more
Why Gentherm (THRM) Stock Is Down -20.8% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Gentherm shares fell roughly 20.8% over the trailing 30 days, sliding from $40.70 on September 4, 2026, to $32.23 by the October 5, 2026 close.
- The decline steepened after Gentherm completed its combination with Modine's Performance Technologies business on October 1, 2026, and the stock's $2.07-per-share special dividend went ex-dividend on October 2.
- Concerns about share dilution and integration execution weighed on the stock through September, even as analysts initiated coverage and raised ratings.
- Over the trailing three months, the shares are down roughly 6%, having given back a July earnings-driven rally that carried the stock above $45.
- Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, with an average price target near $48, well above the recent trading range.
Gentherm (THRM) Company Overview and Market Position
Gentherm Incorporated is a global developer and manufacturer of thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies. Its core automotive portfolio includes Climate Control Seats, Climate Control Interiors, steering-wheel heaters, lumbar and massage comfort systems, and valve systems, while its medical segment supplies patient temperature management systems. The company employs more than 14,000 people across 13 countries and generated approximately $1.5 billion in annual sales in 2025, alongside $2.2 billion in automotive new business awards.
Following the October 1, 2026 completion of its combination with the Performance Technologies business of Modine Manufacturing (MOD), Gentherm has broadened into thermal and precision flow management, expanding its reach into commercial, industrial, and off-highway end markets. Investors follow the stock for its content-per-vehicle growth story, its push into adjacent markets, and its progress toward a more diversified revenue base.
Gentherm (THRM) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, THRM declined from $40.70 on September 4, 2026, to $32.23 at the October 5, 2026 close, a drop of about 20.8%. The move was not a single-day event: the stock faded steadily through September before a sharp gap lower in early October.
The trailing three-month picture looks different. The shares began July near $34.27, rallied to $45.61 on July 23 following a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report, and touched an intraday high of $48.35 the next session. Since then, the stock has given back those gains and more, ending the period roughly 6% below its early-July level.
What Drove THRM Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the completion of the Modine combination. On September 10, Gentherm shareholders approved the transaction, a Reverse Morris Trust structure in which Modine spun off its Performance Technologies segment and merged it into Gentherm, with Gentherm issuing new shares to Modine shareholders. Roughly 99% of votes cast supported the share issuance, and about 94% of outstanding shares approved the related charter amendment. The deal closed on October 1, introducing share dilution and integration risk for existing holders.
Alongside the closing, Gentherm declared a special cash dividend of $2.07 per share, totaling about $63.5 million, payable October 7 to shareholders of record on September 28. Because the dividend went ex-dividend on October 2, the share price mechanically adjusted lower that session. THRM gapped down roughly 11.6% on October 2, opening at $31.54 versus the prior close of $33.63.
The September slide also reflected execution concerns. Management had flagged near-term margin pressure from warranty accruals and merger-related costs, and investors weighed customer concentration, softer traction in Asia, and elevated short interest. Positive analyst moves, including CJS Securities' Outperform initiation with a $50 target on September 14 and JPMorgan's upgrade to Overweight with a $48 target on September 15, provided support but did not reverse the downtrend.
What Drove THRM Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly narrative was a round trip. Second-quarter results reported on July 23 showed record product revenue of $416 million, up 11% year over year, and adjusted earnings of $0.75 per share versus a $0.56 consensus. Management raised full-year guidance and authorized a new $400 million share repurchase program, sending the shares above $45.
That rally faded as attention shifted to the Modine combination. The dilutive share issuance, the unresolved final exchange ratio, and the complexity of integrating a larger commercial and off-highway business prompted investors to reassess a valuation that had traded at a premium to auto-components peers. A July acquisition of Innovative Medical Equipment and FDA clearance for the ThermAffyx patient-temperature device supported the growth story, but were outweighed by near-term margin and balance-sheet considerations as the closing approached.
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THRM Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors will be watching the next quarterly report, expected in late October, for evidence that margins are stabilizing after recent warranty and merger-related costs. Management has indicated margins could be lower in the third quarter before rebounding in the fourth, so the earnings trajectory and any update to full-year guidance will be closely scrutinized.
The Modine integration is the central forward-looking theme. Management has outlined targets including meaningful cross-selling synergies and a path toward larger revenue and higher EBITDA margins over the coming years, but execution risk remains a key variable. Other factors to monitor include light-vehicle production trends, traction in Asia, customer concentration among major automotive OEMs, progress in the medical and home-and-office businesses, and the deployment of the $400 million buyback program. Macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, and the pace of electric-vehicle adoption will also influence demand for Gentherm's thermal and comfort technologies.
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THRM in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
THRM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 35 of 42 cases where THRM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where THRM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 37 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 74 cases where THRM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +4.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where THRM advanced for three days, in 173 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for THRM turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where THRM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for THRM entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.215) is normal, around the industry mean (0.818). P/E Ratio (32.862) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.469). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). THRM's Dividend Yield (0.290) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.041). P/S Ratio (0.746) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. THRM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. THRM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of automotive parts
Industry AutoPartsOEM