TOI stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
The Oncology Institute Inc offers oncology services committed to improving cancer prevention, diagnosis, treatment, research, and education... Show more
Why The Oncology Institute (TOI) Is Up +8% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- TOI stock rose approximately +8% over the past 30 days, driven by strong Q4 2025 earnings with 41.6% revenue growth and first positive adjusted EBITDA.
- Over the past quarter, the stock is down around -15%, amid broader volatility in healthcare but buoyed by full-year revenue surpassing $500 million.
- Key catalysts include debt reduction on convertible notes, positive 2026 guidance, and analyst buy ratings with targets up to $8.
- Improved gross margins and capitated care expansion supported recent price movement.
- High trading volume around earnings highlighted market sentiment shift.
The Oncology Institute (TOI) Company Overview and Market Position
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) is a leading value-based oncology provider, delivering specialized cancer care through community-based clinics across five states. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Cerritos, California, the company operates over 100 locations, serving nearly 1.9 million patients with services including physician care, in-house infusion, specialty pharmacy, clinical trials, and patient support. Its core business model emphasizes capitated contracts with payers like Medicare Advantage plans, enabling predictable revenue while focusing on cost-efficient, evidence-based treatments. In the competitive oncology sector, TOI differentiates through scale in pharmacy dispensing and value-based care, which has driven revenue growth amid rising demand for affordable cancer therapies. These fundamentals, particularly pharmacy margins and contract expansions, underpin recent stock price resilience despite sector headwinds.
The Oncology Institute (TOI) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, TOI stock climbed +8%, from a close of about $2.86 around late February to $3.10 recently. The movement was volatile yet trend-driven, with a sharp rally post-Q4 earnings on March 12—jumping from $2.62 to $3.41 by March 16 on elevated volume exceeding 6 million shares—before modest pullback. This reflects steady upward momentum amid high volatility (nearly 8%).
For the past quarter, shares declined -15%, from roughly $3.64 in late December to current levels. The period featured range-bound trading in the low $2s during February, punctuated by earnings-driven surge, indicative of sector pressures offset by company-specific positives.
What Drove TOI Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was TOI's Q4 2025 earnings release on March 12, reporting $142 million revenue (up 41.6% YoY), gross profit of $22.7 million (up 55.2%), and first-ever positive adjusted EBITDA of $0.15 million versus -$7.8 million prior year. Full-year revenue hit $502.7 million (up 27.8%), crossing $500 million milestone. These beats fueled a multi-day surge, with volume spiking to 9.8 million on March 13 and 6.7 million on March 16.
Balance sheet improvements, including $24 million debt reduction on convertible notes and $33.6 million cash, bolstered confidence. Analyst reiterations of buy ratings post-earnings, with targets averaging $7, further supported sentiment. Sector tailwinds in value-based care and pharmacy optimization connected directly to the price uptick.
What Drove TOI Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's -15% drop reflected broader healthcare market trends, including reimbursement pressures and investor caution on unprofitable growth stocks. Early period saw shares dip to $2.38 in mid-February amid range-bound trading. Cumulative impact from prior quarters' losses weighed, despite ongoing revenue momentum from capitated contracts (up 17% YoY) and pharmacy scaling.
Macro factors like interest rates and Medicare Advantage demand influenced oncology peers, but TOI's institutional interest grew via insider buying. Earnings revelation shifted narrative, highlighting path to profitability, though not enough to fully reverse quarterly decline. Competitive positioning in community oncology provided relative stability.
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TOI Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q1 2026 earnings for progress toward full-year guidance of $630-650 million revenue, $97-107 million gross profit, and $0-9 million adjusted EBITDA. Upcoming capitated contract ramps, especially $150 million target, and pharmacy dispensing growth will signal execution. Industry trends in value-based oncology reimbursements and Medicare policies remain key. Macro shifts in healthcare spending and interest rates could sway sentiment. Risks include regulatory changes or execution delays, while catalysts like further debt paydown or partnerships may drive upside.
Disclaimer
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TOI in downward trend: price may drop because broke its higher Bollinger Band on April 16, 2026
TOI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 43 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOI moved out of overbought territory on March 20, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOI as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOI just turned positive on April 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 36 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOI moved above its 50-day moving average on March 31, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOI advanced for three days, in of 265 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 198 cases where TOI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (74.074) is normal, around the industry mean (138.839). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (106.316). TOI's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.502). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.647) is also within normal values, averaging (2.503).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TOI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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