VIST stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Vista Energy SAB de CV is an independent oil and gas company... Show more
Vista Energy (VIST) Stock Analysis: Record Vaca Muerta Output Meets a Consolidating Share Price
Key Takeaways
- VIST shares closed near $67.92, roughly 2% higher over the trailing 30 days, consolidating after an intra-month swing between roughly $63 and $75.
- Third-quarter 2026 production reached a record 169,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up 33% year over year.
- Quarterly revenue rose 75% to about $1.23 billion, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 78% to $841 million, with a 68% margin.
- Vista fully consolidated its Equinor-acquired Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro interests and exported 73% of its crude sales volumes.
- Net income reached $293 million, but reported EPS of $2.52 came in modestly below analyst consensus as realized oil prices eased sequentially.
- Management reiterated its 2027 targets of 185,000 bpd of production and roughly $3.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA at an $80 Brent assumption.
- For deeper data, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for VIST.
- To see how automated strategies are positioned across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Current Market Snapshot
Vista Energy has traded in a broad, choppy range over the past month. After dipping toward the low-$60s in early October, shares rallied to an intra-month high near $75 before pulling back to the high-$60s as of early November. The net result is a relatively modest advance of about 2% over the trailing 30 days, masking meaningful intra-period volatility driven by crude price swings and a post-earnings reset.
Sentiment around VIST remains broadly constructive, supported by a rising production base, a growing export footprint, and a strengthening balance sheet. At the same time, the stock remains sensitive to Brent crude prices and Argentina's macro environment, which continue to influence realized pricing and investor positioning in Latin American energy equities.
Vista Energy (VIST) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. is an Argentina-focused oil and gas exploration and production company, formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas. Incorporated in 2017 and led by founder and CEO Miguel Galuccio, the company operates primarily in the Vaca Muerta shale formation of the Neuquina basin, with its core assets in blocks such as Bajada del Palo Oeste and La Amarga Chica.
Vista has established itself as Argentina's largest independent oil producer and its leading crude exporter. Its strategy centers on low-cost shale development, export-parity pricing, and disciplined capital allocation. The company recently expanded its scale through acquisitions, including the purchase of Equinor interests in the Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks, consolidating those assets from May 2026. This low-cost, export-oriented model is a key reason investors follow the stock.
Recent Developments Driving VIST
Vista reported third-quarter 2026 results in late October, headlined by record production of 169,000 boe/d, a 33% year-over-year increase. Oil output averaged 147,100 barrels per day, up 34%, while natural gas production rose 29%. Revenue climbed 75% to about $1.23 billion, and adjusted EBITDA advanced 78% to $841 million.
The quarter reflected the full consolidation of the acquired Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro assets, which contributed three months of production versus two months in the prior period. Exports rose 56% year over year to 9.9 million barrels, representing 73% of oil sales, generating $935 million in export revenue. Realized oil prices averaged $84.20 per barrel, up 30% year over year but down 6% sequentially as Brent softened from about $97 to $91 per barrel.
Profitability was a mixed signal: net income reached $293 million, but reported EPS of $2.52 missed analyst consensus. Lifting costs edged up 6% year over year to $4.70 per boe, reflecting peso-denominated inflation amid a relatively flat exchange rate. Meanwhile, free cash flow of $334 million helped reduce net leverage to 1.12x adjusted EBITDA and fund a $55 million share buyback executed during the quarter.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of automated trading bots from a much larger universe, where hundreds of AI-driven strategies trade across thousands of tickers. Only the top-performing and most relevant bots are highlighted in this section, giving users a focused view of the strategies currently attracting attention. These bots vary widely in approach, timeframe, and performance metrics, ranging from short-term swing models to longer-horizon trend systems. For traders interested in how quantitative, rules-based strategies are positioned across the market, the page offers a practical starting point for exploration.
2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape VIST's trajectory. Management has reiterated its 2027 guidance of 185,000 barrels per day of production and about $3.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA at an $80 Brent assumption, signaling continued growth ambitions. The potential acceleration of the Bandurria Norte project, subject to approval under Argentina's RIGI investment regime, could pull additional activity forward from 2029 into 2027.
Investors should monitor crude oil price movements, as Vista's earnings are highly sensitive to Brent levels and differentials. Argentina's inflation and exchange-rate dynamics also affect lifting costs and realized pricing. Pipeline evacuation capacity, including the progress of the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) project, remains a key structural consideration for export growth. Analyst price targets for VIST have ranged around the $87 to $93 area, though individual views vary and should be weighed against the inherent volatility of the energy and Argentine macro landscape.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
VIST's RSI Indicator sits in oversold zone for 5 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VIST advanced for three days, in 275 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
VIST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 260 of 287 cases where VIST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VIST as a result. In 53 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VIST turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 77%.
VIST moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VIST crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VIST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. VIST’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.904) is normal, around the industry mean (3.610). P/E Ratio (7.202) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.187). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.120) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.336) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
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General Information
an oil and gas company, which engages in exploration and production of oil & gas.
Industry OilGasProduction