Watsco is the largest HVAC and refrigeration products distributor in North America with approximately 13% market share... Show more
Watsco holds a dominant position as North America's largest HVAC/R distributor, leveraging a "buy and build" strategy that has driven decades of expansion through over 100 acquisitions since 1989. Its competitive moat stems from unmatched scale—with dense branch networks, broad product assortments across price points, and strong vendor partnerships like joint ventures with Carrier (56% of prior revenues)—enabling superior service in the high-margin replacement segment, which outpaces new construction. Technology investments in e-commerce and inventory management further differentiate Watsco, boosting efficiency and customer convenience against fragmented regional rivals. Medium-term, ongoing M&A targets market share gains, while a focus on non-equipment products (parts, supplies) enhances margin resilience amid equipment volume fluctuations.
The Q1 2026 earnings release on April 28 will spotlight sales trends post-2025's unit volume decline, with analysts forecasting EPS of $1.69 (down year-over-year) but FY2026 growth to $12.72. A $500 million buyback announcement underscores shareholder returns, potentially supporting valuation amid Hold consensus. Recent analyst actions include JPMorgan raising its target to $400 (Neutral) and Zacks upgrading to Hold, signaling stabilizing sentiment, though targets average $416 (high $475, low $362). Further M&A and A2L transition completion could drive upside, as higher average selling prices from new refrigerants sustain gross margins near record levels.
The global HVAC market is projected to reach $333 billion in 2026, with the U.S. at $165 billion, propelled by replacements amid aging systems and climate-driven cooling demand. Watsco's model benefits from this shift, as replacements (prioritizing speed and availability) comprise the bulk of activity versus interest-rate-sensitive new builds. Declining rates could revive housing starts, while inflation moderation supports contractor spending. Regulatory pushes for energy-efficient A2L systems align with Watsco's supply chain, though geopolitical supply disruptions pose risks to commodities like copper.
Tickeron’s Trend Prediction Engine is an AI-powered forecasting tool that helps traders identify whether a stock, ETF, or other asset may move bullish, bearish, or sideways over the next week or month. Designed to spot developing trends, evaluate possible breakouts or reversals, and explore predictions across a wide range of tradable instruments, it includes searchable prediction categories, historical context, and alert-oriented functionality for timely insights. Users can leverage this neutral, data-driven resource to inform strategies on assets like WSO amid HVAC market dynamics.
Consensus projects 2026 revenue of $7.37 billion (up modestly) and EPS of $12.72, reflecting 12% growth as industry normalizes post-2025 slowdown. Key themes include replacement cycle acceleration, e-commerce expansion (recent double-digit gains), and margin sustainability via non-equipment sales and tech efficiencies. M&A remains central for geographic penetration, bolstered by $293 million cash and no debt. Watch capital allocation—dividends up 10% to $13.20 annually—versus buybacks, alongside competitive threats from OEM direct sales. Regulatory evolution in efficiency standards and climate adaptation will shape multi-year demand.
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a distributer of central air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment
Industry ElectronicsDistributors
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WSO has been loosely correlated with AIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WSO jumps, then AIT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WSO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSO | 100% | -0.97% | ||
| AIT - WSO | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.03% | ||
| FERG - WSO | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.45% | ||
| POOL - WSO | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.70% | ||
| MSM - WSO | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.93% | ||
| BXC - WSO | 46% Loosely correlated | -3.54% | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WSO | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| WSO | 100% | -0.97% |
| Electronics Distributors industry (22 stocks) | 74% Closely correlated | -1.34% |
The RSI Oscillator for WSO moved out of oversold territory on June 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WSO as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WSO just turned positive on June 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where WSO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WSO advanced for three days, in of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
WSO moved below its 50-day moving average on May 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WSO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WSO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
WSO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WSO entered a downward trend on June 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.924) is normal, around the industry mean (5.197). P/E Ratio (32.581) is within average values for comparable stocks, (152.661). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.569) is also within normal values, averaging (2.099). WSO has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.031) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (2.080) is also within normal values, averaging (1.661).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WSO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.