A bullish signal on Toll Brothers ahead of earnings
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) is set to report earnings on May 22 and the stock just got a bullish signal from the Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Engine on May 17. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month and it showed a confidence level of 69%. Past predictions on Toll Brothers have been successful 72% of the time.
The company has really strong fundamentals heading into the earnings report. The company has seen earnings grow at an average annual rate of 36% over the last three years. Earnings increased by 19% in the most recent quarterly report. Revenue has increased by an average rate of 19% annually over the last three years and it increased by 16% in the most recent quarter.
The company shows a return on equity of 15.4% and a profit margin of 13.1%
The weekly chart shows another possible long-term bullish signal and that is the fact that the 13-week moving average just crossed bullishly above the 52-week moving average. The last time we saw a bullish cross of these moving averages was in November 2016, right before the stock rallied sharply for the next year.
One final observation about Toll Brothers that could help move the stock higher and that is the sentiment toward the stock. Only five out of 19 analysts rank the stock as a buy. This means there is a far greater chance of upgrades in the future than downgrades. This could help push the stock higher in the coming months.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
TOL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 03, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 162 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 162 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TOL as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TOL turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
TOL moved below its 50-day moving average on August 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.532) is normal, around the industry mean (2.094). P/E Ratio (11.426) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.814). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.954) is also within normal values, averaging (3.192). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.266) is also within normal values, averaging (27.714).
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
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