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TOL
Stock ticker: NYSE
AS OF
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Capitalization
9.19B

TOL Toll Brothers Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

a designer of single family homes

Industry Homebuilding
Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
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A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TOL with price predictions
07:00 PM EST Nov 26, 2023

TOL in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2023

TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 51 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 01, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 30, 2023. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 08, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 321 cases where TOL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 21, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 01, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.373) is normal, around the industry mean (5.725). P/E Ratio (6.211) is within average values for comparable stocks, (83.566). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.938) is also within normal values, averaging (1.607). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.010) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (0.899) is also within normal values, averaging (71.853).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

A.I.Advisor
published Highlights

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Industry description

Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Homebuilding Industry is 5.49B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 66.68K to 42.47B. DHI holds the highest valuation in this group at 42.47B. The lowest valued company is ASCK at 66.68K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 14%, and the average quarterly price growth was 8%. STHI experienced the highest price growth at 31%, while CYRBY experienced the biggest fall at -4%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was -3%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -23% and the average quarterly volume growth was -64%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 37
P/E Growth Rating: 33
Price Growth Rating: 43
SMR Rating: 53
Profit Risk Rating: 58
Seasonality Score: 9 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I. Advisor
published Earnings

TOL is expected to report earnings to $3.71 per share on December 05

Toll Brothers TOL Stock Earnings Reports
Q4'23
Est.
$3.71
Q3'23
Beat
by $0.89
Q2'23
Beat
by $0.94
Q1'23
Beat
by $0.31
Q4'22
Beat
by $1.64
The last earnings report on August 22 showed earnings per share of $3.73, beating the estimate of $2.84. With 1.04M shares outstanding, the current market capitalization sits at 9.19B.
A.I.Advisor
published Dividends

TOL paid dividends on October 20, 2023

Toll Brothers TOL Stock Dividends
А dividend of $0.21 per share was paid with a record date of October 20, 2023, and an ex-dividend date of October 05, 2023. Read more...
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a designer of single family homes

Industry Homebuilding

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Homebuilding
Address
1140 Virginia Drive
Phone
+1 215 938-8000
Employees
5200
Web
https://www.tollbrothers.com
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TOL and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TOL
1D Price
Change %
TOL100%
-0.12%
PHM - TOL
89%
Closely correlated
-0.22%
LEN - TOL
88%
Closely correlated
-0.62%
TMHC - TOL
86%
Closely correlated
-0.75%
KBH - TOL
86%
Closely correlated
-0.62%
MDC - TOL
85%
Closely correlated
-0.97%
More

Groups containing TOL

Correlation & Price change

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TOL
1D Price
Change %
TOL100%
-0.12%
Homebuilding
(undefined stocks)
85%
Closely correlated
+0.38%
housing recovery
(undefined stocks)
85%
Closely correlated
-0.54%
high tech
(undefined stocks)
85%
Closely correlated
-0.52%
TOL
(undefined stocks)
84%
Closely correlated
-0.68%
single family homes
(undefined stocks)
83%
Closely correlated
-0.81%
More