GET DAILY SIGNALSAAON (NASDAQ: AAON) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Data-Center Cooling Demand in Focus
Key Takeaways
- AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON) is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results around November 9, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus points to revenue of roughly $598 million to $612 million, up from $384.2 million in the year-ago period.
- Analysts expect earnings per share near $0.56 to $0.58, compared with $0.37 reported a year earlier.
- Data-center demand, led by the BASX liquid-cooling business, remains the central growth driver heading into the report.
- Investors will watch gross-margin trends closely after management lowered its full-year 2026 margin guidance.
- For more details, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages.
- Discover timely trade ideas by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
AAON, a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment, has drawn attention for its growing role in data-center cooling. The BASX segment, focused on liquid-cooling and air-handling solutions for data centers, has fueled strong revenue growth recently. In the second quarter of 2026, total revenue rose 101.2% year over year to a record $626.98 million. After the stock pulled back following that report due to margin concerns, this quarter’s results will show whether the company can maintain top-line momentum while improving profitability. I’m watching this closely as a key test for investors following the AI infrastructure buildout.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts expect AAON to report third-quarter 2026 revenue between roughly $598 million and $612 million, which would mark year-over-year growth of more than 55% from the $384.2 million posted in the third quarter of 2025. Consensus earnings per share are near $0.56 to $0.58, compared with $0.37 a year earlier. These estimates come after a solid second quarter that featured record revenue of $626.98 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.69, beating the consensus of $0.49. For the full year, management has guided to sales growth of 55% to 60%, though it reduced its gross-margin target to 25% to 26% owing to temporary costs from the Memphis facility ramp-up. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment ahead of the third-quarter report is mixed. The stock has come under pressure since the August earnings release, where strong revenue was offset by a lower gross-margin forecast linked to production ramp-up and higher outsourcing costs. The main risk is that margin pressure continues even as data-center demand stays solid. On the upside, management has indicated that margins should improve sequentially in the second half as throughput rises and higher-priced backlog converts. The market’s response will likely depend on whether reported margins and guidance confirm that these temporary headwinds are easing.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Beyond the headline numbers, several areas deserve attention. Gross-margin trends will be important, as management has tied recent compression to the Memphis facility ramp, outsourcing, and inflation, with expected sequential improvement in the third and fourth quarters. Confirmation here would bolster the investment case. Next, the mix of growth between the BASX and AAON Coil Products segments matters, given the visibility from the data-center backlog and any updates on 2027-2028 pipelines. Finally, pricing actions and cost controls are worth tracking, since recent price increases are embedded in the backlog and a margin rebound would show they are taking effect. Execution risks around scaling capacity remain a factor to balance against these positives. From what I see, these elements will shape how the story develops.
Exploring AI Tools for Market Analysis
In my research process, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry trends. It helps surface relevant setups in sectors like HVAC without manual effort, and I find it useful when comparing names such as AAON to peers or identifying broader opportunities based on volatility and performance metrics. This approach keeps my analysis efficient while staying focused on the data at hand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AAON in +2.49% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 03, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where AAON advanced for three days, in 261 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for AAON's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
AAON may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AAON as a result. In 66 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAON turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
AAON moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAON crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for AAON entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.441) is normal, around the industry mean (2.990). P/E Ratio (28.052) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.807). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.982) is also within normal values, averaging (1.215). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.084) among similar stocks. AAON's P/S Ratio (3.261) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AAON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a maker of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment
Industry BuildingProducts
Advertisement