GET DAILY SIGNALSAlpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Reports Wider Third-Quarter Loss as Costs Climb
Key Takeaways
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) reported a third-quarter 2026 net loss of $9.29 million, or $0.73 per share, widening from a loss of $5.52 million, or $0.42 per share, a year earlier.
- Total revenue rose 6.7% year over year to $562.25 million, but came in slightly below consensus estimates.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) improved sequentially to $29.4 million, yet remained well below the $41.68 million reported a year ago.
- Tons sold rebounded to 3.9 million, while Met segment cost of coal sales climbed to $106.93 per ton, up from $103.07 in the prior quarter.
- Management issued 2027 guidance for total shipments of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons and per-ton costs of $104 to $110.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is a leading U.S. supplier of metallurgical ("met") coal, the high-quality coking coal used in steelmaking. Its results therefore hinge on global steel demand, met coal pricing, and the company's ability to manage mining costs across its Central Appalachian operations. This quarter is significant because it follows a period of soft steel demand and rising input costs that have squeezed margins for the broader U.S. coal sector. Investors were watching closely whether recovering shipment volumes and firmer met coal indices could offset steadily climbing production costs. The report's 2027 guidance adds further weight, offering the first detailed read on how management expects the cost and pricing environment to shape next year. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how AMR compares to others in the materials space.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Alpha reported total revenues of $562.25 million, up 6.7% from $526.78 million in the same period last year. The company posted a net loss of $9.29 million, or $0.73 per diluted share, compared with a loss of $5.52 million, or $0.42 per share, a year earlier. The per-share loss was wider than consensus expectations.
Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was $29.4 million, up from $25.6 million in the second quarter but down from $41.68 million a year ago. Tons sold increased to 3.9 million from 3.5 million sequentially, and the Met segment realization improved to $121.09 per ton from $118.71. However, cash cost of coal sales rose to $106.93 per ton from $103.07, compressing margins despite higher volumes. Operating cash flow was $46.9 million, while capital expenditures fell to $33.8 million from $45.1 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment around AMR turned cautious well before the official release. In late October, the company pre-announced a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss, and shares sold off sharply, dropping roughly 6.8% toward their 52-week low. The negative tone reflected concerns that rising costs were outpacing a recovery in volumes and pricing. On the official report date, the stock rebounded, closing higher as investors weighed management's commentary that much of the input-cost inflation has already flowed through and digested the newly issued 2027 guidance. Still, analyst sentiment remains measured, with a consensus "Hold" rating and price targets implying only modest upside, underscoring continued caution about the cost and demand backdrop.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Alpha's 2027 guidance will be the central reference point for investors in the coming quarters. The company expects total coal shipments of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons, including 13.1 million to 14.1 million tons of metallurgical coal and 1.2 million to 1.6 million tons of thermal coal. Management has already committed 3.5 million tons to domestic customers for 2027 at an average price of $135.48 per ton.
A key watch item is cost. The 2027 cost guidance of $104 to $110 per ton sits above the current range and well above where costs stood a year ago, though executives indicated that input-cost inflation has largely run its course. Whether realized pricing keeps pace with these costs will determine whether the company can return to profitability.
Logistics also matter. The damaged stacker reclaimer at the Dominion Terminal Associates export facility will require a roughly two-year replacement, and while Alpha is routing volumes through other Hampton Roads terminals, the constraint caps upside above the top of the shipment range. Finally, steel demand and seaborne met coal indices remain the swing factors for pricing, and investors will monitor whether the recent supply-driven index rally can be sustained against still-weak global steel consumption.
Exploring AI Tools for Stock Analysis
In my own workflow, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter for stocks in the materials sector that match specific technical and fundamental criteria. It helps surface comparable names and highlight potential setups without hours of manual work, which is especially useful when evaluating earnings like AMR’s against industry peers.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for AMR turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AMR saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 70 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 60 of the 70 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMR turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
The 50-day moving average for AMR moved below the 200-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMR entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMR advanced for three days, in 252 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
AMR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.212) is normal, around the industry mean (1.240). AMR has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-39.797) as compared to the industry average of (-9.001). AMR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.322). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.054) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.179) is also within normal values, averaging (1.284).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AMR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
an explorer of oil and natural gas
Industry Coal
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