GET DAILY SIGNALSWarrior Met Coal (HCC) Delivers +55% Revenue Growth and Record Volumes Despite EPS Miss
Key Takeaways
- Total revenue rose about 55% year over year to $507.9 million, modestly ahead of the consensus estimate near $505 million.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.93, up from $0.70 a year ago, but fell short of the roughly $1.50 consensus estimate.
- Sales volumes reached another quarterly record of 3.49 million short tons, up 48%, supported by the ramping Blue Creek mine.
- The board declared a $2.00-per-share special dividend on top of the regular $0.08 quarterly payout.
- Cash margin per ton improved to $38.58 from $35.14 a year earlier, even as cash costs per ton edged higher.
Why the Quarter Matters
Warrior Met Coal’s third-quarter results highlight an important phase in the company’s shift toward higher output and stronger cash returns. The Blue Creek mine, which started longwall operations about a year ago and ahead of schedule, now drives volume growth and margin expansion. I’m watching closely to see whether its lower-cost production can help offset softer steelmaking-coal prices and ongoing global trade pressures. The special dividend also signals that management views the heavy construction phase as largely complete and is ready to return more capital to shareholders.
Q3 Results Breakdown
Revenue reached $507.9 million, up from $328.6 million a year earlier and slightly above the roughly $505 million consensus. Net income increased to $49.3 million from $36.6 million, while diluted EPS rose to $0.93 from $0.70 yet came in below the $1.44–$1.51 analyst range. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare the quarter’s metrics against peers in the metallurgical coal space.
Sales volumes set a new record at 3.49 million short tons, up 48% from 2.36 million short tons, with production climbing to 3.05 million short tons. The average net selling price improved to $143.56 per short ton from $135.87. Cash costs per ton moved up to $100.73 from $97.89, but the higher mix of lower-cost Blue Creek output lifted the cash margin per ton to $38.58 from $35.14.
Market Reaction
Shares declined in after-hours trading, largely because the EPS figure missed consensus even though revenue slightly exceeded expectations. This reaction underscores how closely investors track bottom-line results, especially after several prior beats. Broader concerns about steelmaking-coal pricing and trade policy have also weighed on sentiment, even as the stock’s 12-month performance remains positive overall. The record volumes and special dividend did not fully offset the earnings shortfall in the initial reaction.
What to Watch Next
The key variable going forward is whether Blue Creek continues to expand volumes while Warrior Met Coal manages higher cash costs per ton. Its lower-cost output has been the primary driver of margin improvement, so its ramp will remain central to results. Investors should also track steelmaking-coal benchmarks such as the Platts Premium Low Vol index and the HCC index, along with demand signals from India and any policy shifts in China. On the capital-return side, the $2.00 special dividend plus the regular $0.08 quarterly payout reflect confidence in cash generation now that major spending is behind the company. Full-year 2026 volume guidance of 13.0–14.0 million short tons will be another important marker to monitor.
Using Tickeron Tools in My Research
When analyzing results like these, I find it helpful to run quick screens for comparable names and technical setups. Tickeron’s AI Screener lets me filter by industry, margins, and recent performance so I can place Warrior Met Coal’s quarter in context without spending hours on manual work. It has become a regular part of how I review earnings releases and spot follow-up ideas.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HCC sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
HCC saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 02, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HCC as a result. In 53 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HCC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for HCC entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HCC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HCC advanced for three days, in 267 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
HCC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HCC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: HCC's P/B Ratio (1.860) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.332). HCC has a moderately high P/E Ratio (19.389) as compared to the industry average of (-10.141). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.322). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. HCC's P/S Ratio (2.910) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.284).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
an investment holding company with interests in the production of coal, coke, and natural gas
Industry Coal
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