GET DAILY SIGNALSAmeresco (AMRC) Delivers Q3 Beat with +10% Revenue Growth and Near-40% Backlog Increase
Key Takeaways
- Revenue rose 10% year over year to $580.3 million, topping the consensus estimate of roughly $572.9 million.
- Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.88, beating the analyst consensus of $0.57 by $0.31.
- Gross margin expanded to 18.7%, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 24% to $91.7 million.
- Total project backlog reached nearly $7.2 billion, up almost 40% from a year earlier, supported by $875 million in new awards during the quarter.
- Management issued fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 guidance that includes consolidated joint-venture results and a new tax-based accounting policy.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Ameresco's third-quarter report arrives at a key time for the energy-infrastructure sector, where rising electricity demand, grid challenges, and decarbonization efforts are fueling customer interest. The company brings strong momentum into the period across its project, energy-asset, and operations and maintenance businesses. Investors are focused on whether AMRC can turn its expanding backlog into profitable revenue while handling margin and execution risks. The results also stand out because management introduced notable accounting changes this quarter, including full consolidation of joint ventures and a tax-based policy for transferable tax credits, which affected both current and historical figures.
Reported Results
Ameresco reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $580.3 million, up 10% from $526.0 million in the prior-year period and above the consensus estimate of roughly $572.9 million. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.88, well ahead of the $0.57 analysts expected. On a GAAP basis, net income attributable to common shareholders was $31.9 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, versus $74.0 million, or $1.39 per diluted share, a year ago. The GAAP comparison is not directly comparable due to the accounting changes and recast prior-period figures.
Segment performance was solid across the board. Project revenue increased 9% to $446.0 million, energy-asset revenue rose 21% to $75.4 million, and O&M revenue grew 20% to $37.0 million. Gross margin expanded to 18.7%, and adjusted EBITDA reached $91.7 million, up 24% year over year. Total project backlog stood at roughly $7.2 billion, up nearly 40% from the prior year. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Ameresco shares advanced more than 8% in after-hours trading following the release, with the stock trading around $23.49 versus a prior close of $22.45. Investors appeared to reward the company's revenue and EPS beats, the expansion in gross margin, and the near-40% growth in backlog, which supports multi-year revenue visibility. Still, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $37.14, reflecting lingering concerns about execution risk, project-mix variability, and the added complexity from the accounting changes. The broader positive response suggests the market is focused on improving profitability and record demand rather than the recast GAAP figures.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
For the fourth quarter, Ameresco guided to revenue of $625 million to $650 million, gross margin of 17.0% to 18.0%, adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $90 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.95 to $1.05. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $2.13 billion to $2.15 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85 to $1.95. Management noted that the guidance reflects only the accounting changes and does not signal a shift in its operational outlook.
Investors should watch several factors in the quarters ahead. First, the company's ability to convert its $7.2 billion backlog into recognized revenue and earnings will be central to sustaining growth. Second, margin trends deserve attention, since the 18.7% gross margin achieved in the third quarter may indicate that full-year guidance of 17% to 18% could prove conservative, though project mix and timing can introduce quarterly variability.
Other key items include the expansion of the operating energy-asset base, which stood at 827 megawatts (MW) with another 500 MW in development, and the growth of the O&M backlog beyond $1.5 billion. Balance-sheet health also matters: unrestricted cash was $128.5 million, total corporate debt was $380.4 million, and corporate leverage stood at 2.9 times. Finally, the newly adopted accounting treatment for joint ventures and transferable tax credits will continue to shape how reported results are interpreted, so investors should compare figures on a consistent, recast basis.
Using AI Tools for Ongoing Research
In my analysis of names like AMRC, I find value in layering in AI-driven insights to cross-check fundamentals and technical signals. Tickeron’s AI Screener has become a regular part of that process for me, allowing quick filtering across energy-infrastructure peers and highlighting potential comparables based on patterns and performance metrics. It helps surface ideas efficiently without replacing core fundamental work.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AMRC's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for AMRC entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 262 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 228 of the 262 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 56 cases where AMRC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMRC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
AMRC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMRC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMRC as a result. In 56 of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMRC just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMRC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
AMRC moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +9.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMRC advanced for three days, in 202 of 268 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.927) is normal, around the industry mean (14.908). P/E Ratio (40.019) is within average values for comparable stocks, (166.230). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.133) is also within normal values, averaging (3.522). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.207) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.602) is also within normal values, averaging (2.856).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AMRC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMRC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of energy utility services and energy management solutions
Industry EngineeringConstruction
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