GET DAILY SIGNALSAmplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) Analyst Target Points to +142% Potential Upside
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $7.75 is the arithmetic mean of two verified analyst price targets, from Alliance Global Partners ($6.50) and Benchmark Co. ($9.00).
- At the latest verified close of $3.20, reaching $7.75 would require a gain of roughly 142% — a very large move for a company trading near its 52-week low.
- The analyst range is wide ($6.50 to $9.00), reflecting disagreement about how quickly higher production and cost cuts translate into profits.
- Supporting factors include rising oil production, a cut in the Beta field royalty rate, sharply lower Bairoil operating costs, and an active share-repurchase program.
- Key risks include volatile commodity prices, derivative mark-to-market losses that recently drove a GAAP loss, and concentrated, mature assets.
- Both targets were set in mid-2026 and predate the company's November 2026 third-quarter results and subsequent share-price decline.
- For more detail on this ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings, explore these pages for updated context.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading tools are monitoring stocks and ETFs in real time.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company headquartered in Houston, with assets concentrated in the Beta field offshore Long Beach, California, and the Bairoil complex in Wyoming. It is covered by a small analyst group: two credible, current price targets were reviewed, yielding a range of $6.50 to $9.00. The arithmetic mean is $7.75, which serves as the central stock price target used throughout this article.
Alliance Global Partners carries a Buy rating and a $6.50 target (lowered from $7.25), while Benchmark Co. reiterates Buy with a $9.00 target (reduced from $11 in August 2026). The roughly 38% gap between the two objectives underscores genuine uncertainty about the pace of a turnaround. Both firms point to improving operational execution and cash-flow potential, but the lower target reflects caution on commodity-price volatility and California pricing differentials. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
AMPY closed near $3.20 on November 9, 2026, with a market capitalization around $133 million and a 52-week range of $3.14 to $6.79. Reaching $7.75 would represent a gain of about 142% from the current price — a very large move that would require the shares to more than double and exceed their prior 52-week high.
That path would depend on a sustained recovery in realized crude prices, continued production growth, and the benefits of recent cost and royalty improvements flowing through to earnings. Third-quarter 2026 revenue of $51.4 million beat estimates, and adjusted EBITDA rose about 26% quarter over quarter — but a $24.6 million derivative mark-to-market loss pushed the company to a GAAP loss of $0.46 per share, missing expectations. The shares now trade at a modest P/E on trailing earnings, reflecting investor skepticism rather than confirmed weakness in operations.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
Several verified developments could underpin a higher stock price forecast. Total production rose about 9% sequentially to roughly 7,400 barrels of oil per day, with new Beta wells C29 and C16 performing strongly. Effective November 1, 2026, the Beta royalty rate was cut from about 24.8% to roughly 12.4%, which the company says improves drilling economics and extends the field's economic life. Bairoil lease operating expenses fell about 30% quarter over quarter to their lowest level since the 2014 acquisition, aided by an amended CO2 purchase agreement and associated tax credits.
Management has also backed its view with capital: a $15 million buyback program was authorized in August 2026, with roughly $6.9 million repurchased at an average of $4.35 per share through early November. The company reiterated its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $30 million to $40 million, even as it narrowed some production and cost ranges.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
The biggest obstacle is commodity-price exposure and hedging. A decline in realized crude prices — Brent averaged about $91 per barrel in the quarter, down from roughly $97 — directly pressures revenue and can trigger large, non-cash derivative losses that obscure underlying performance. California refinery capacity reductions have also compressed local pricing, and the company is working to open new sales outlets for its Beta output.
The company's asset base is concentrated and mature, and cash on hand fell to about $10 million at quarter-end. Liquidity of roughly $25 million, a pending borrowing-base redetermination, and sensitivity to the state of California's energy market add financial and regulatory uncertainty. If oil prices weaken or the royalty relief proves temporary, the earnings power required to justify a $7.75 valuation may not materialize.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
AMPY is trading just above its 52-week low of $3.14 after a decline of more than 40% over the trailing 12 months. The $3.00 area is a psychological support zone, while the prior 52-week high of $6.79 stands well above the shares as a major resistance level. A move toward $7.75 would require first reclaiming the $5.00 round-number level and then breaking decisively above $6.79 — a structural hurdle that, if cleared, would place the stock in territory it has not occupied in more than a year.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of roughly 12 months, though the specific horizon varies by firm. Both available targets predate the November 2026 results, so investors should watch for any revisions. Key items to monitor include quarterly earnings and adjusted EBITDA, realized oil prices and hedging outcomes, progress on Beta development drilling, Bairoil cost trends, the borrowing-base redetermination, buyback activity, and any changes to California pricing differentials or royalty relief conditions. From what I see, keeping an eye on these factors is essential before assuming the target will be met.
Final Assessment
The $7.75 central target reflects the mean of two analyst price targets, not a guarantee of performance. From a current price near $3.20, the required move of roughly 142% is very large, and the wide $6.50-to-$9.00 range highlights meaningful disagreement over how quickly operational gains will convert into durable profits. Support comes from rising production, royalty relief, steep cost reductions, and share repurchases; the principal obstacles are oil-price volatility, derivative losses, asset concentration, and technical resistance near prior highs. Investors should watch earnings, realized pricing, and any analyst revisions rather than treat the target as a forecast.
Using Tickeron AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals in Practice
In my own work, I turn to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to get a quick, data-driven read on names like this one. The tool scans thousands of stocks and ETFs in real time, helping me spot potential shifts without spending hours on manual charts. It has become a useful complement to traditional research when evaluating volatile names with limited analyst coverage.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
AMPY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
AMPY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 45 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMPY as a result. In 85 of 111 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMPY turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMPY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMPY entered a downward trend on November 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMPY advanced for three days, in 222 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
AMPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.314) is normal, around the industry mean (3.610). P/E Ratio (6.529) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.187). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.130) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). AMPY has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.120) as compared to the industry average of (0.050). P/S Ratio (0.874) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AMPY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMPY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
an independent oil and natural gas company, which engages in acquisition, development, exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties
Industry OilGasProduction
Advertisement