GET DAILY SIGNALSAmprius Technologies (AMPX) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Tracking Growth Momentum
Key Takeaways
- Amprius Technologies is set to report third quarter 2026 results after the market close on November 10, 2026, followed by a conference call the next morning.
- Wall Street consensus calls for Q3 revenue in the range of roughly $35.6 million to $35.8 million, continuing the company’s run of sequential top-line increases.
- Analysts anticipate a loss of about $0.01 per share, narrower than the $0.04 GAAP loss recorded in Q2 2026.
- Gross margin and adjusted EBITDA will draw attention following management’s recent lift of full-year 2026 revenue guidance to at least $140 million.
- Key themes include demand trends in drones, defense, and light electric vehicles, plus advances on U.S.-based NDAA-compliant production capacity.
Why This Report Matters
Amprius Technologies has posted six straight quarters of sequential revenue growth, driven by greater use of its SiCore silicon-anode batteries across drones, defense applications, and light electric vehicles. The company has already raised its 2026 outlook twice, most recently setting a full-year revenue target of at least $140 million and gross margin guidance of at least 28%. This upcoming release will show whether that pace holds through the second half. I’m watching closely to see if losses continue to narrow as the firm moves toward a contract-manufacturing approach and builds out its domestic, NDAA-compliant supply chain.
What Analysts Expect
Consensus estimates point to another solid quarter of expansion. Projections from major data providers place third quarter 2026 revenue between approximately $35.6 million and $35.8 million, up from $34.0 million in Q2 2026 and about 66% above the $21.4 million posted in Q3 2025. On the bottom line, the consensus forecasts a net loss near $0.01 per share, an improvement from the $0.04 GAAP loss per share in the prior quarter.
Attention will also turn to gross margin and adjusted EBITDA. In Q2, gross margin rose to 27% from 20% in Q1, while adjusted EBITDA improved to negative $1.0 million, moving closer to breakeven. Management’s full-year goals of at least 28% gross margin and more than $4.0 million in adjusted EBITDA provide a clear yardstick for the third quarter. The stock has moved sharply on past updates, climbing after the Q2 report on a revenue beat and raised guidance. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock stacks up against peers in the sector.
Market Sentiment Heading In
Investor sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, reflecting steady operational progress alongside ongoing concerns about GAAP losses and the path to profitability. Shares of AMPX have shown volatility around earnings, often rising when revenue exceeds expectations and guidance is lifted. The main risk is that two prior guidance increases may have already priced in high expectations. A sequential dip in gross margin, further movement away from breakeven on adjusted EBITDA, or failure to reaffirm full-year targets could weigh on the stock. On the other hand, another revenue beat paired with steady or higher guidance would likely strengthen the case for wider adoption of silicon-anode technology.
Looking Ahead Beyond Q3
Further out, several factors will shape the company’s path into 2027. Demand durability in defense and drone markets stands out, especially where NDAA-compliant domestic supply contracts are involved. Gross margin expansion remains important as the shift from the legacy SiMaxx platform to higher-volume SiCore cells improves profitability, though facility-related overhead may cause some quarterly variability. Capacity expansion through partnerships in South Korea and the United States, along with the move to a contract-manufacturing model, carries execution and qualification risks as output scales. Balance sheet health is another focus: the company finished Q2 with $74.5 million in cash and no debt, with management noting that cash should cover obligations for at least the next twelve months. Any updates on funding, capital spending, or new commercial and defense wins will receive close attention as the firm targets more than $600 million in contracted capacity and at least 20% adjusted EBITDA margins by the end of the decade.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When preparing for earnings like this, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI-powered tools to quickly scan for comparable names and technical setups. Their platform helps surface ideas across industries and timeframes, letting me cross-check fundamentals and momentum signals in one place. It has become a regular part of how I organize thoughts ahead of reports like the one from AMPX.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AMPX in +26.60% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where AMPX advanced for three days, in 167 of 199 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMPX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMPX just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMPX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
AMPX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMPX as a result. In 72 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
AMPX moved below its 50-day moving average on November 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMPX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMPX entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.139) is normal, around the industry mean (2.765). P/E Ratio (-30.069) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.467). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.910). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.091) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.351) is also within normal values, averaging (9.055).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AMPX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMPX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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